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Property Crime Decline in Selma, North Carolina: A Decade of Improvement Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Selma, a town in North Carolina, has experienced significant changes in property crime rates alongside population growth over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased dramatically from 437 to 111, representing a 74.6% reduction. During the same period, the population grew from 9,891 to 12,352, an increase of 24.9%.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a substantial decline over time. In 2010, there were 201 burglaries, which decreased to 26 in 2022, marking an 87.1% reduction. When adjusted for population, the rate fell from 20.3 burglaries per 1,000 people in 2010 to 2.1 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.49% in 2016 before dropping to 0.11% in 2022. This significant decrease in burglaries, both in absolute numbers and relative to the state, suggests improved security measures or changes in local socioeconomic conditions.
Larceny theft also exhibited a downward trend, though less dramatic than burglary. Cases decreased from 214 in 2010 to 67 in 2022, a 68.7% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 21.6 in 2010 to 5.4 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny theft cases decreased from 0.16% in 2010 to 0.06% in 2022. This consistent decline indicates improved community vigilance or enhanced law enforcement strategies targeting petty theft.
Motor vehicle theft showed a more complex pattern. While the number of cases decreased from 22 in 2010 to 18 in 2022, there were fluctuations, with a low of 4 cases in 2014 and a high of 30 in 2019. The rate per 1,000 people decreased slightly from 2.2 in 2010 to 1.5 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.21% in 2010 to 0.12% in 2022, despite the relatively stable number of cases. This suggests that while local efforts may have helped control vehicle theft, it remains a persistent issue.
Arson cases in the city have remained low throughout the period, ranging from 0 to 3 cases annually. The rate per 1,000 people never exceeded 0.3. The city's contribution to state arson cases fluctuated but remained relatively low, peaking at 0.36% in 2013 and settling at 0.11% in 2022. These low numbers suggest that arson is not a significant concern for the community.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and population density. As the population density increased from 1,830 per square mile in 2010 to 2,285 in 2022, property crime rates decreased significantly. Additionally, there's a notable correlation between the rise in median income and the decrease in property crimes. The median income increased from $30,126 in 2013 to $39,788 in 2022, coinciding with the overall reduction in property crimes.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), property crime rates in Selma could potentially decrease further by 15-20% from 2022 levels, assuming current socioeconomic trends continue. However, this projection should be interpreted cautiously due to potential unforeseen factors.
In summary, Selma has made remarkable progress in reducing property crime rates across all categories, particularly in burglary and larceny theft. This improvement, coupled with population growth and rising median incomes, suggests a positive trajectory for the town's safety and economic development. The consistent decrease in the city's contribution to state crime figures further underscores the effectiveness of local crime prevention strategies.
