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Wellston, Missouri: Property Crime Trends in a Shrinking City
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Wellston, Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2011 to 2016, the total number of property crimes fluctuated significantly, starting at 148 in 2011, peaking at 232 in 2012, and then settling at 129 in 2016. This represents a net decrease of 12.8% over the five-year period. Concurrently, the population declined from 2,244 in 2011 to 1,764 in 2016, a 21.4% decrease, suggesting a complex relationship between population changes and crime rates.
Burglary rates in the city showed a volatile pattern. In 2011, there were 64 burglaries, representing 0.19% of the state's total. This number rose to 80 in 2012 (0.26% of state total) before dropping sharply to 24 in 2013 (0.08% of state total). By 2016, burglaries had increased slightly to 28, accounting for 0.12% of the state's burglaries. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fluctuated from 28.5 in 2011 to 15.9 in 2016, indicating an overall downward trend despite yearly variations. This decrease in burglary rates, both in absolute numbers and as a percentage of state totals, suggests improvements in local security measures or shifts in criminal activity patterns.
Larceny-theft incidents exhibited a different trend. Starting at 55 cases in 2011 (0.05% of state total), they doubled to 110 in 2012 (0.10% of state total), before settling at 83 in 2016 (0.08% of state total). The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 24.5 in 2011 to 47.1 in 2016, a substantial rise of 92%. This uptick in larceny-theft, despite a declining population, indicates a growing challenge for local law enforcement and community safety initiatives.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed a general decline. From 29 cases in 2011 (0.23% of state total), it peaked at 42 in 2012 (0.31% of state total) before decreasing to 18 in 2016 (0.12% of state total). The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 12.9 in 2011 to 10.2 in 2016, a 21% decrease. This reduction in motor vehicle thefts, both in absolute numbers and as a proportion of state totals, suggests effective targeted prevention strategies or a shift in criminal focus away from this type of property crime.
Arson cases in the city were relatively low but showed significant fluctuations. From 8 cases in 2011 (0.84% of state total), they dropped to 0 in 2016. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 3.6 in 2011 to 0 in 2016. This complete elimination of reported arson cases by 2016 is a notable achievement, potentially indicating successful fire prevention and community awareness programs.
Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals interesting patterns. The city's median income increased from $20,627 in 2013 to $23,408 in 2016, a 13.5% rise. During this period, the overall property crime rate per 1,000 residents increased from 52.5 to 73.1, suggesting that rising incomes did not necessarily lead to reduced property crime. The percentage of owner-occupied housing decreased slightly from 34% in 2013 to 32% in 2016, which could have contributed to the increased larceny-theft rates, as areas with lower homeownership often experience higher property crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall property crime rates. Based on the observed trends, burglary and motor vehicle theft rates are likely to continue their downward trajectory, while larceny-theft may plateau or show a modest increase. Arson cases are expected to remain very low or non-existent.
In summary, Wellston has experienced diverse trends across different types of property crimes from 2011 to 2016. The significant decrease in burglaries and motor vehicle thefts, coupled with the elimination of arson cases, indicates some success in crime prevention efforts. However, the rise in larceny-theft rates presents an ongoing challenge. These trends, when considered alongside demographic changes such as population decline and increasing median income, paint a complex picture of the city's evolving socioeconomic landscape and its impact on property crime patterns.
