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Violent Crime Trends in Wardell, Missouri: A Small Town's Fluctuating Safety Record
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Wardell, Missouri, a small community with a population of 457 as of 2022, has experienced fluctuating violent crime rates over the years. From 2010 to 2016, the total number of violent crimes varied, starting at 5 in 2010, dropping to 0 in 2011 and 2012, rising again to 5 in 2013, then decreasing to 2 in 2014, and finally settling at 1 in 2016. This represents an overall 80% decrease in violent crimes during this period. Concurrently, the population declined from 546 in 2010 to 542 in 2016, a modest 0.73% decrease.
The city has not reported any murders from 2010 to 2016, maintaining a consistent 0% of state murders throughout this period. This absence of murders, despite population changes, suggests a relatively safe environment in terms of homicides, with the murder rate per 1,000 people remaining at 0 throughout the observed years.
Rape incidents in the city have been rare, with only one reported case in 2013. This single incident represented 0.06% of the state's rape cases that year. The rape rate per 1,000 people was approximately 1.71 in 2013, based on the population of 584 that year. In all other reported years, there were no rape cases, indicating an overall low incidence of this crime.
Robbery has been consistently absent from the city's crime statistics from 2010 to 2016, with 0 reported cases each year. This translates to a 0% share of state robberies and a robbery rate of 0 per 1,000 people throughout the period, suggesting that this particular type of violent crime is not a significant concern for the community.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. In 2010, there were 5 cases, representing 0.03% of state aggravated assaults. This number dropped to 0 in 2011 and 2012, rose to 4 cases (0.03% of state) in 2013, decreased to 2 cases (0.01% of state) in 2014, and finally settled at 1 case (0.01% of state) in 2016. The rate per 1,000 people fluctuated accordingly, from 9.16 in 2010 to 1.85 in 2016, showing an overall downward trend.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As population density decreased from 1,933 per square mile in 2010 to 1,918 in 2016, violent crimes also generally declined, with some fluctuations. The median rent increased from $360 in 2013 to $550 in 2016, which coincided with a decrease in violent crimes, potentially suggesting an inverse relationship between rent prices and crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued low level of violent crime in the city. Based on the overall declining trend from 2010 to 2016, we project that aggravated assaults may stabilize at 0-1 cases per year, while other violent crimes are likely to remain at or near zero. However, this prediction assumes that current socioeconomic conditions and law enforcement efforts remain relatively constant.
In summary, Wardell has demonstrated a general trend of decreasing violent crime rates from 2010 to 2016, with aggravated assault being the primary concern. The absence of murders and robberies, coupled with very low rape incidents, suggests a relatively safe community. The correlation between declining population density and reduced violent crime rates, along with the potential inverse relationship with rising median rent, may indicate improving socioeconomic conditions contributing to enhanced public safety. These trends, if sustained, bode well for the future safety and quality of life in this small Missouri town.
