Motor vehicle theft saw a substantial increase, rising from 6 cases in 2021 to 11 in 2022, an 83.33% surge. This translated to a rate increase from 0.65 to 1.29 per 1,000 people, a 98.46% jump. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts doubled from 0.32% to 0.65%, suggesting a significant localized issue with this type of crime.

Arson cases emerged as a new concern in 2022, with one reported incident compared to none in 2021. This resulted in a rate of 0.12 per 1,000 people and represented 1.43% of state arson cases, a notable figure for a city of this size.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income decreased from $32,691 in 2021 to $31,272 in 2022, property crime rates increased. Additionally, the rise in property crimes coincided with a slight increase in the percentage of owner-occupied housing, from 0.82 in 2021 to 0.82 in 2022, suggesting that homeownership alone may not be a deterrent to property crime in this context.

Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029, Waynesboro may see: Burglary cases increasing to approximately 34-36 annually, Larceny-theft cases potentially rising to 50-52 per year, Motor vehicle thefts possibly reaching 18-20 incidents annually, and Arson cases potentially stabilizing at 1-2 per year.

In summary, Waynesboro is experiencing a concerning upward trend in property crimes, particularly in burglaries and motor vehicle thefts. The disproportionate increase in the city's share of state crime statistics suggests localized factors may be contributing to these trends. The inverse correlation with median income highlights the potential impact of economic factors on crime rates. As the city moves forward, addressing these rising property crime trends, especially in the context of a decreasing population, will be crucial for maintaining community safety and quality of life.