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Violent Crime Trends in Aberdeen, Mississippi: Fluctuations Amidst Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Aberdeen, located in Mississippi, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2014, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, starting at 15 in 2010, peaking at 19 in 2011 and 2012, dropping to 9 in 2013, and then rising again to 18 in 2014. This represents a 20% increase in violent crimes over this period. Concurrently, the population decreased from 10,463 in 2010 to 9,414 in 2014, a decline of about 10%.
Regarding murder rates, the data shows no reported cases of murder and nonnegligent manslaughter from 2010 to 2014. This consistent zero rate, despite population changes, suggests that the city has maintained effective measures to prevent these most serious violent crimes. The percentage of state crime for this category remained at 0% throughout the period, indicating that Aberdeen did not contribute to the state's murder statistics during these years.
The data for rape cases is largely unavailable, with "No Data Available" reported for 2013 and 2014, and zero cases reported for earlier years. This lack of data makes it challenging to draw meaningful conclusions about rape trends in the city. The absence of reported cases in earlier years and subsequent lack of data could indicate either a genuine absence of incidents or potential issues with reporting and data collection.
Robbery trends show some fluctuation over the years. In 2010, there were 4 robberies, representing 0.19% of the state's total. This number decreased to 3 in 2011 (0.18% of state total), then sharply increased to 10 in 2012 (0.62% of state total), before dropping back to 4 in 2013 (0.26%) and further to 2 in 2014 (0.14%). When adjusted for population, the robbery rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.38 in 2010 to 0.97 in 2012, then decreased to 0.21 in 2014. This suggests that while the absolute number of robberies fluctuated, the rate relative to population also varied significantly.
Aggravated assault cases show the most dramatic changes. Starting at 11 cases in 2010 (0.54% of state total), it increased to 16 in 2011 (0.76%), then dropped to 9 in 2012 (0.43%) and further to 4 in 2013 (0.23%), before sharply rising again to 16 in 2014 (0.92%). The rate per 1,000 people follows a similar pattern, starting at 1.05 in 2010, peaking at 1.51 in 2011, dropping to 0.40 in 2013, and then rising to 1.70 in 2014. This indicates that aggravated assault has been a significant and volatile component of the city's violent crime profile.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 865 per square mile in 2010 to 778 in 2014, the overall violent crime rate increased. This suggests that factors other than population density may be influencing crime rates in the city.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), Aberdeen may see a slight increase in violent crimes, particularly in aggravated assaults, if current trends continue. However, the city's relatively low and stable rates of murder and robbery are expected to persist.
In summary, Aberdeen has experienced fluctuating violent crime rates over the examined period, with aggravated assault being the most significant and variable component. The absence of murders and the generally low robbery rates are positive indicators for public safety. However, the volatility in aggravated assault cases and the inverse relationship with population density suggest complex underlying factors influencing crime in the city. Moving forward, focused strategies to address aggravated assaults while maintaining the low rates in other categories could be beneficial for Aberdeen's overall public safety outlook.
