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Warrenton, Missouri: Rising Home Values and Shifting Ownership Patterns
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
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Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Warrenton, located in Missouri, is a growing community with a rich history and a dynamic real estate market. Over the past decade, this city has experienced notable shifts in homeownership rates, average home prices, and average rent prices, reflecting broader economic trends and local market conditions.
The homeownership rate in Warrenton has shown a gradual decline from 2013 to 2022. In 2013, 78% of residents were homeowners, but by 2022, this figure had decreased to 70%. Conversely, the average home prices have seen a significant upward trend. In 2012, the average home price was $146,227, and by 2022, it had risen to $246,212, representing a substantial increase of 68.4% over a decade. This inverse relationship between homeownership rates and average home prices suggests that rising property values may have made homeownership less accessible for some residents.
Federal interest rates have played a crucial role in shaping homeownership trends in Warrenton. From 2013 to 2016, interest rates remained exceptionally low, hovering around 0.1% to 0.4%. During this period, homeownership rates remained relatively stable, ranging from 77% to 78%. However, as interest rates began to rise from 2017 onwards, reaching 1.68% in 2022, homeownership rates showed a more pronounced decline, dropping to 70%. This trend aligns with the general principle that lower interest rates tend to encourage homeownership due to more affordable financing options.
The renter population in Warrenton has seen a corresponding increase as homeownership rates declined. In 2013, 22% of residents were renters, and by 2022, this figure had grown to 30%. Average rent prices have also shown an upward trend, albeit with some fluctuations. In 2013, the average rent was $782, and it peaked at $878 in 2021 before slightly decreasing to $872 in 2022. This represents an overall increase of 11.5% in average rent prices from 2013 to 2022. The growth in the renter population and rent prices may be attributed to the city's increasing population, which grew from 12,556 in 2013 to 13,740 in 2022, creating more demand for rental properties.
In 2023 and 2024, the real estate market in Warrenton continued to evolve. The average home price in 2023 reached $253,789, and in 2024, it further increased to $264,440. This represents a 3.1% year-over-year increase from 2022 to 2023 and a 4.2% increase from 2023 to 2024. Concurrently, federal interest rates rose significantly, reaching 5.02% in 2023 and 5.33% in 2024, which may impact future homeownership trends in the city.
Looking ahead, based on historical trends and current market conditions, we can anticipate continued growth in average home prices in Warrenton. Applying a simple linear regression model to the available data, we project that average home prices could reach approximately $300,000 by 2029. For average rent prices, assuming a similar growth pattern, we estimate they could increase to around $950 per month in the next five years. However, these projections are subject to various economic factors and local market conditions.
In summary, Warrenton has experienced a gradual shift towards a higher proportion of renters, coupled with significant increases in both average home prices and average rent prices over the past decade. The interplay between federal interest rates, population growth, and property values has shaped these trends. As the city continues to grow and evolve, these patterns in the housing market are likely to have lasting impacts on the community's demographic and economic landscape.
