Robbery trends in the city present a more positive picture. The number of robberies decreased from 131 in 2010 to 65 in 2022, a 50.4% reduction. When adjusted for population, the robbery rate per 1,000 people fell from 1.20 in 2010 to 0.51 in 2022, a 57.5% decrease. The city's percentage of state robberies remained relatively stable, moving from 2.35% in 2010 to 2.13% in 2022. This downward trend in robberies, even as the population grew, suggests effective crime prevention strategies or changing socioeconomic conditions in the city.

Aggravated assault cases in Columbia have increased over the period. The number of incidents rose from 359 in 2010 to 436 in 2022, a 21.4% increase. However, when adjusted for population growth, the rate per 1,000 people actually decreased slightly from 3.30 in 2010 to 3.39 in 2022, a 2.7% increase. The city's share of state aggravated assaults remained relatively stable, moving from 2.51% in 2010 to 2.51% in 2022. This suggests that while the absolute number of assaults has increased, it has largely kept pace with population growth.

Examining correlations between crime trends and other factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate positive correlation between the increase in median rent (from $767 in 2013 to $968 in 2022, a 26.2% increase) and the rise in certain violent crimes, particularly rape and aggravated assault. This could potentially be linked to increased economic stress or changing neighborhood dynamics.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of current trajectories. Murders may continue to increase, potentially reaching 15-18 annual cases. Rape incidents could rise to 110-120 per year. Robberies might stabilize or slightly decrease to around 55-60 annual cases. Aggravated assaults could see a moderate increase to 470-500 cases per year.

In summary, Columbia, Missouri has experienced varying trends across different types of violent crimes from 2010 to 2022. While robberies have significantly decreased, murders and rapes have shown concerning increases. Aggravated assaults have increased in absolute numbers but remained relatively stable when adjusted for population growth. These trends, coupled with the city's growing population and rising housing costs, present complex challenges for law enforcement and community leaders. Focused efforts on addressing the rising incidence of certain violent crimes, particularly murders and rapes, while maintaining the positive trends in robbery reduction, will be crucial for improving public safety in Columbia in the coming years.