Robbery rates have generally decreased over the decade. In 2010, there were 13 robberies (1.87 per 1,000 residents), accounting for 0.46% of the state's total. By 2020, this had dropped to just 1 robbery (0.17 per 1,000 residents), representing 0.04% of the state's total. This significant decrease indicates a substantial improvement in this category of violent crime within the city.

Aggravated assault, the most common form of violent crime in the area, has shown a notable decrease. In 2010, there were 124 aggravated assaults (17.86 per 1,000 residents), representing 1.56% of the state's total. By 2020, this number had fallen to 41 (7.09 per 1,000 residents), accounting for 0.35% of the state's total. This represents a 66.9% decrease in the number of aggravated assaults over the decade, outpacing the population decline.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between the declining population density and the overall reduction in violent crimes. As the population density decreased from 1,906 people per square mile in 2010 to 1,588 in 2020, the total number of violent crimes also fell. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between changes in racial demographics and crime rates. As the percentage of Black residents increased from 38% in 2013 to 44% in 2020, and the percentage of White residents decreased from 57% to 53%, overall violent crime rates fluctuated but generally trended downward.

Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), the city may see a further reduction in overall violent crime rates if current trends continue. The model suggests that aggravated assaults could potentially decrease to around 30-35 incidents per year, while robberies might remain in the low single digits. However, given the small population size, even minor fluctuations can significantly impact the crime rate per capita.

In summary, Winnfield has experienced a general downward trend in violent crime over the past decade, particularly in robberies and aggravated assaults. This trend has occurred alongside a declining population, suggesting a complex interplay between demographic changes and crime rates. The city's evolving racial composition and decreasing population density appear to correlate with these crime trends, pointing to potential socio-economic factors influencing public safety. As the community continues to change, ongoing monitoring and adaptive strategies will be crucial in maintaining and improving public safety outcomes.