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Property Crime Trends in Covington, Louisiana: A Decade of Decline Amid Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Covington, located in Louisiana, has experienced notable changes in property crime rates over the past decade, alongside significant population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 60.7%, from 272 to 107 incidents. During this same period, the population increased by 40.4%, from 18,043 to 25,333 residents, indicating a substantial improvement in property crime rates relative to population growth.
Burglary trends in the city show a significant decline over time. In 2010, there were 49 burglaries, which decreased to 16 by 2022, representing a 67.3% reduction. When considering population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 2.71 in 2010 to 0.63 in 2022, a 76.7% decrease. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, starting at 0.24% in 2010, peaking at 0.49% in 2012, and settling at 0.14% in 2022. This trend suggests improved local burglary prevention efforts relative to state-wide statistics.
Larceny-theft incidents also showed a downward trend, dropping from 213 cases in 2010 to 80 in 2022, a 62.4% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents declined from 11.8 in 2010 to 3.16 in 2022, a 73.2% reduction. The city's proportion of state larceny-thefts decreased from 0.44% in 2010 to 0.17% in 2022, indicating a more substantial improvement compared to state-wide trends. This significant reduction in larceny-theft rates suggests enhanced community vigilance and effective law enforcement strategies.
Motor vehicle theft trends showed fluctuations but ultimately decreased. From 10 incidents in 2010, it reached a peak of 16 in 2014 before declining to 11 in 2022. Despite the overall increase in numbers, the rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 0.55 in 2010 to 0.43 in 2022, a 21.8% reduction due to population growth. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained relatively stable, moving from 0.2% in 2010 to 0.13% in 2022, suggesting that local trends generally aligned with state-wide patterns.
Arson incidents in the city were sporadic and low in number. There were 2 cases in 2010, 1 in 2013, and 1 in 2022, with several years reporting no incidents. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 0.11 in 2010 to 0.04 in 2022. Notably, the city's share of state arsons increased from 1.01% in 2010 to 1.04% in 2022, despite the overall low numbers, indicating that arson remained a persistent, albeit rare, issue relative to state-wide statistics.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $66,323 in 2013 to $80,381 in 2022, property crime rates declined substantially. Additionally, the stability in home ownership rates, ranging from 71% to 76% between 2013 and 2022, coincided with the overall reduction in property crimes, suggesting a potential link between community stability and crime reduction.
Applying predictive models based on current trends, it's forecasted that by 2029 (five years from now), property crime rates in the city could potentially decrease by another 30-35%, assuming current socioeconomic conditions and law enforcement strategies remain consistent. This projection suggests a continuation of the positive trend in crime reduction.
In summary, Covington has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in property crime rates over the past decade, outpacing its substantial population growth. The significant reductions in burglary and larceny-theft rates, coupled with stable or decreasing trends in motor vehicle theft and arson, paint a picture of a city that has effectively addressed property crime issues. These trends, correlated with rising median incomes and stable homeownership rates, suggest a strengthening community fabric that bodes well for continued crime reduction in the future.
