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Violent Crime Trends in Williams, Arizona: A Decade of Change and Stability
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Williams, located in Arizona, is a small urban area with a population of 3,341 as of 2022. Over the past decade, the city has experienced fluctuations in both its violent crime rates and population. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes increased by 145.45%, from 11 to 27 incidents. During the same period, the population grew by 10.48%, from 3,024 to 3,341 residents.
Murder trends in the city have been relatively stable, with most years reporting zero incidents. However, there was one murder reported in 2017 and another in 2021. These isolated incidents resulted in a murder rate of 0.30 per 1,000 people in 2017 and 0.30 per 1,000 people in 2021. The percentage of state murders attributed to the city was 0.33% in 2017 and 0.89% in 2021. While these figures appear high, they are due to the low overall number of murders in a small population.
Rape incidents have fluctuated over the years, with a peak of 5 cases in 2017 and a low of 0 cases in 2019. The rape rate per 1,000 people ranged from 0 to 1.50, with the highest rate occurring in 2017. The city's contribution to the state's total rape cases has varied, reaching a maximum of 0.21% in 2011 and dropping to 0% in several years. The inconsistent pattern suggests that rape occurrences in the city are sporadic and do not follow a clear trend.
Robbery rates in the city have remained low, with most years reporting either 0 or 1 incident. The highest number of robberies (2) occurred in 2013 and 2014. The robbery rate per 1,000 people has not exceeded 0.61 throughout the period. The city's contribution to the state's total robberies has been minimal, peaking at 0.05% in 2014. These figures indicate that robbery is not a prevalent issue in the community.
Aggravated assault has been the most common violent crime in the city, showing significant fluctuations over the years. The number of incidents ranged from a low of 8 in 2010 and 2013 to a high of 42 in 2020. The aggravated assault rate per 1,000 people varied from 2.47 in 2018 to 12.49 in 2020. The city's contribution to the state's total aggravated assaults reached its highest at 0.41% in 2021. This crime category has shown the most variability and has the largest impact on the overall violent crime rate in the city.
There appears to be a correlation between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 68 per square mile in 2010 to 76 per square mile in 2022, there was a general upward trend in violent crimes. Additionally, there seems to be a relationship between the Hispanic population percentage and violent crime rates. As the Hispanic population grew from 29% in 2013 to 42% in 2022, there was a corresponding increase in violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can expect the total number of violent crimes to continue fluctuating but with a slight upward trend. Based on historical patterns, aggravated assaults are likely to remain the primary driver of violent crime in the city. The murder rate is expected to remain low, with possible isolated incidents. Rape and robbery rates are predicted to continue their inconsistent patterns but remain relatively low compared to aggravated assaults.
In summary, Williams has experienced an overall increase in violent crimes over the past decade, primarily driven by fluctuations in aggravated assaults. While the city has seen isolated incidents of more serious crimes like murder, its contribution to state-wide crime statistics remains relatively small. The relationship between population growth, changing demographics, and crime rates suggests that as the city continues to develop, local law enforcement may need to adapt strategies to address the evolving nature of violent crime in the community.
