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Violent Crime Trends in Waynesville, Missouri: A Decade of Fluctuations Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Waynesville, Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, with a notable decrease of 34.6% from 26 incidents in 2010 to 17 in 2022. This change occurred against a backdrop of significant population growth, with the city expanding from 7,359 residents in 2010 to 9,587 in 2022, representing a 30.3% increase.
The murder rate in the city has remained relatively low and stable over the years. There were only three recorded murders between 2010 and 2022, occurring in 2011, 2014, and 2018. This translates to an average of 0.1 murders per 1,000 people during these years. The percentage of state murders attributable to the city fluctuated between 0% and 0.34%, with the highest contribution in 2011. Despite the population growth, the murder rate has not shown a consistent trend, indicating that population increase has not significantly impacted the occurrence of murders in the city.
Rape incidents have shown more variability. The number of reported rapes increased from 4 in 2010 to 5 in 2022, peaking at 18 in 2021. This represents a 25% increase over the 12-year period. When adjusted for population, the rate went from 0.54 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 0.52 per 1,000 in 2022, showing a slight decrease despite the raw number increase. The city's contribution to state rape cases fluctuated, reaching a high of 0.85% in 2021 before dropping to 0.24% in 2022. This suggests that while the absolute number of rapes has increased, the rate relative to population has remained fairly stable.
Robbery trends show a decline over the period. The number of robberies decreased from 3 in 2010 to 1 in 2022, a 66.7% reduction. The robbery rate per 1,000 people dropped from 0.41 in 2010 to 0.10 in 2022. The city's contribution to state robbery cases has remained consistently low, never exceeding 0.05% of the state total. This indicates that robbery has become less prevalent in the city, both in absolute terms and relative to population growth.
Aggravated assault cases have shown significant fluctuation. From 19 cases in 2010, the number dropped to 11 in 2022, a 42.1% decrease. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 2.58 in 2010 to 1.15 in 2022. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault cases has varied, peaking at 0.13% in 2010 and 2011, and dropping to 0.06% by 2022. This suggests that despite population growth, the city has managed to reduce the incidence of aggravated assaults over time.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 1,028 per square mile in 2010 to 1,340 in 2022, the overall violent crime rate decreased. There's also a weak positive correlation between changes in racial composition and violent crime trends. As the white population percentage decreased slightly from 79% in 2014 to 77% in 2022, there was a corresponding slight increase in some violent crime categories, particularly rape.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall violent crime rates. The murder rate is likely to remain low and sporadic. Rape incidents may continue to fluctuate but are expected to stay within the range of 4-8 cases annually. Robbery rates are predicted to remain low, potentially averaging 1-2 cases per year. Aggravated assaults may stabilize around 10-15 cases annually.
In conclusion, Waynesville has demonstrated a complex pattern of violent crime trends from 2010 to 2022. While the overall violent crime rate has decreased despite population growth, individual categories show varied patterns. The city has made progress in reducing robberies and aggravated assaults, but faces ongoing challenges with rape incidents. The relatively stable low murder rate is a positive aspect of the city's safety profile. These trends, viewed in the context of rapid population growth, suggest that Waynesville has managed to maintain and even improve public safety in several areas while facing the challenges of urban expansion.
