Loading Content...
Violent Crime Trends in Aurora, Missouri: A Decade of Fluctuations in a Small City
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Aurora, Missouri, a small urban center, has experienced steady population growth over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the city's population increased from 8,619 to 9,659, representing a 12.1% growth. During this same period, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, with a notable decrease from 102 incidents in 2015 to 71 in 2022, marking a 30.4% reduction despite population growth.
Murder rates in the city have remained exceptionally low, with zero murders reported from 2010 to 2021. However, in 2022, there was one murder, representing 0.19% of the state's total. This single incident translates to a rate of 0.1 murders per 1,000 residents, which is still considerably low. The emergence of this lone case after years of no murders warrants attention but does not necessarily indicate a trend given the city's history.
Rape incidents have shown fluctuation over the years. The number of reported rapes increased from 4 in 2010 to 11 in 2022, peaking at 13 in 2021. This represents an increase from 0.46 to 1.14 rapes per 1,000 residents between 2010 and 2022. The percentage of state rape cases attributed to the city has also risen, from 0.37% in 2010 to 0.52% in 2022, indicating a growing share of the state's total rape cases.
Robbery rates in the city have remained relatively low and stable. The number of robberies decreased from 3 in 2010 to 1 in 2022, with some fluctuations in between. This translates to a decrease from 0.35 to 0.1 robberies per 1,000 residents. The city's contribution to state robbery cases has also diminished, from 0.05% in 2010 to 0.03% in 2022, suggesting improved safety relative to state averages.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent violent crime in the city. The number of cases increased from 54 in 2010 to 58 in 2022, peaking at 92 in 2015. This represents a slight decrease from 6.26 to 6.01 assaults per 1,000 residents between 2010 and 2022. The city's share of state aggravated assault cases has decreased from 0.38% in 2010 to 0.33% in 2022, indicating a relatively stable situation compared to state trends.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 1,368 per square mile in 2010 to 1,533 in 2022, violent crime rates initially rose but then stabilized and slightly decreased. This suggests that the city has managed to control crime rates despite increasing urbanization.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (until 2029), we can anticipate a slight decrease in overall violent crime rates if current trends continue. The murder rate is likely to remain very low, potentially averaging less than one incident per year. Rape cases may stabilize around 10-12 per year, while robbery rates are expected to remain in the low single digits. Aggravated assaults might see a modest decrease, potentially dropping to around 50-55 cases annually by 2029.
In summary, Aurora has demonstrated resilience in managing violent crime rates despite population growth. The most significant challenges appear to be in addressing rape and aggravated assault cases, while murder and robbery rates remain low. The city's ability to maintain relatively stable crime rates while experiencing population growth suggests effective law enforcement strategies and community engagement. Moving forward, focused efforts on preventing sexual assaults and reducing aggravated assaults could further improve the city's safety profile.
