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Violent Crime Trends in Scott City, Missouri: A Decade of Fluctuations and Zero Murders
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Scott City, Missouri, a small urban area with a population of 5,125 in 2022, has experienced notable fluctuations in violent crime over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes increased from 5 to 11, representing a 120% increase. During this same period, the city's population decreased by 7%, from 5,512 to 5,125 residents.
In terms of murder and nonnegligent manslaughter, Scott City has maintained a remarkably consistent record. Throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2022, there were zero reported cases. This translates to a murder rate of 0 per 1,000 people, which has remained unchanged despite population fluctuations. The city's contribution to the state's murder statistics has consistently been 0%, indicating that Scott City has not been a factor in Missouri's overall murder rates.
Rape incidents in the city have shown a concerning upward trend. In 2010, there were no reported cases, but by 2022, the number had risen to 3. This represents an increase from 0 to 0.59 cases per 1,000 people. The city's contribution to the state's rape statistics has also increased significantly, from 0% in 2010 to 0.14% in 2022. This trend suggests a growing issue that merits attention from local law enforcement and community leaders.
Robbery trends in Scott City have been relatively stable with occasional spikes. The city reported no robberies in most years, with exceptions in 2011 and 2022, when there was 1 reported case each year. This translates to a rate that fluctuated between 0 and 0.19 robberies per 1,000 people. The city's contribution to state robbery statistics has remained minimal, peaking at 0.03% in 2022.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in Scott City. The number of cases fluctuated significantly, from a low of 1 in 2021 to a high of 15 in 2011 and 2017. In 2022, there were 7 reported cases, equating to 1.37 cases per 1,000 people. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault statistics has varied, reaching a high of 0.1% in 2013 and 2014, and standing at 0.04% in 2022.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate relationship between violent crime rates and median rent. As median rent increased from $561 in 2013 to $732 in 2022, violent crime rates showed some fluctuation but generally trended upward. There doesn't seem to be a strong correlation between violent crime and population density or racial distribution, as the city has remained predominantly white (94% in 2022) throughout the period.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (until 2029), we anticipate a slight increase in overall violent crime. Rape cases are projected to continue their upward trend, potentially reaching 4-5 cases annually. Aggravated assault is expected to fluctuate but maintain an average of 8-10 cases per year. Robbery rates are likely to remain low but may see occasional single incidents. Murder rates are predicted to remain at zero, consistent with the city's historical trend.
In summary, Scott City has experienced a significant increase in violent crime over the past decade, primarily driven by rises in rape and aggravated assault cases. While the overall numbers remain relatively low for a city of its size, the upward trend, particularly in rape cases, warrants attention. The city's consistently low murder rate is a positive aspect, but the fluctuations in other violent crimes suggest a need for targeted crime prevention strategies and community engagement initiatives to address these issues effectively.
