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Violent Crime Trends in Waukegan: A Decade of Fluctuations and Progress
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Waukegan, Illinois has experienced significant changes in violent crime rates over the past decade. From 2012 to 2020, the total number of violent crimes decreased by 24.8%, from 420 to 316 incidents, while the population saw a slight decrease of 1.9%, from 86,273 to 86,026.5 residents. This overall reduction in violent crime is a positive trend for the city.
The murder rate in Waukegan has shown considerable volatility. In 2012, there were 2 murders, which rose to a peak of 11 in 2018, before declining to 7 in 2020. This represents a 250% increase over the eight-year period. When adjusted for population, the murder rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.023 in 2012 to 0.081 in 2020. The city's contribution to state murder statistics fluctuated significantly, ranging from 0.11% in 2016 to 1.4% in 2018, indicating periods of disproportionate impact on state-wide murder rates.
Rape incidents in the city have shown a general downward trend. From 47 cases in 2012, the number decreased to 13 in 2020, a 72.3% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 0.54 in 2012 to 0.15 in 2020. The city's share of state rape cases also decreased, from 2.69% in 2012 to 0.38% in 2020, suggesting improved relative safety compared to the state average.
Robbery cases have seen a consistent decline. The number of robberies dropped from 160 in 2012 to 108 in 2020, a 32.5% decrease. The robbery rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 1.85 to 1.25 over this period. However, the city's contribution to state robbery statistics increased slightly from 0.9% to 1.02%, indicating that the decline was less pronounced than the state average.
Aggravated assault incidents showed a slight decrease, from 211 in 2012 to 188 in 2020, an 11% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people decreased marginally from 2.45 to 2.19. The city's share of state aggravated assault cases decreased from 0.87% to 0.68%, suggesting a relatively stable situation compared to state trends.
A strong correlation exists between violent crime rates and population density. As population density decreased from 3,622 per square mile in 2010 to 3,551 in 2020, violent crime rates also declined. Additionally, there appears to be a relationship between median rent increases and crime reduction. As median rent rose from $855 in 2013 to $996.5 in 2020, violent crime rates generally decreased.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends, it is estimated that by 2029, Waukegan may see a further 15% reduction in overall violent crime rates if current trends continue. This projection suggests that the number of violent crimes could potentially drop to around 268 incidents annually.
In summary, Waukegan has made significant strides in reducing violent crime over the past decade, particularly in the areas of rape and robbery. However, the fluctuations in murder rates and the city's varying contributions to state crime statistics highlight areas that may require continued attention. The correlations between crime rates, population density, and economic factors like median rent provide valuable insights for future urban planning and crime prevention strategies in Waukegan.
