Robbery trends in Carlyle have been minimal. Most years saw zero robberies, with exceptions in 2010 (1 incident), 2016 (2 incidents), 2019 (1 incident), and 2021 (1 incident). The robbery rate per 1,000 people peaked in 2016 at 0.45. The city's contribution to state robbery statistics has been negligible, with the highest percentage being 0.11% in 2021. This indicates that robbery is not a significant concern for the city compared to state levels.

Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in Carlyle. The number of incidents has fluctuated, with a high of 22 in 2011 and a low of 3 in 2020. The rate per 1,000 people peaked at 4.76 in 2011 and was at its lowest at 0.67 in 2020. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault statistics has varied, reaching a maximum of 0.14% in 2013 and declining to 0.03% in 2022. This suggests that while aggravated assault remains a concern, its relative impact on state figures has diminished in recent years.

Analyzing correlations, there appears to be a moderate negative correlation between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 1,359 per square mile in 2010 to 1,319 in 2022, there was a general trend of decreasing violent crime, particularly noticeable in the latter years of the data set. Additionally, there seems to be a weak positive correlation between the percentage of the white population and lower crime rates, as the white population percentage increased from 88% in 2015 to 90% in 2022, coinciding with lower crime rates in recent years.

Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), Carlyle may experience a further reduction in violent crimes. The model suggests a potential decrease to an average of 4-5 violent crimes per year, with aggravated assaults likely remaining the most common type of violent crime. The rape and robbery incidents are predicted to remain low, potentially averaging less than one incident per year each.

In summary, Carlyle has demonstrated a generally improving trend in violent crime rates over the past decade. The absence of murders, low incidence of rapes and robberies, and the declining trend in aggravated assaults paint a picture of a relatively safe community. The city's contribution to state crime statistics has remained consistently low across all categories of violent crime. These trends, coupled with the slight population decline and changes in demographic composition, suggest that Carlyle is moving towards a safer environment for its residents. However, continued vigilance and community-based crime prevention strategies will be crucial in maintaining and further improving these positive trends in the coming years.