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Violent Crime Trends in Vandalia, Ohio: A Decade of Contrasts
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Vandalia, Ohio, a small city of 12.39 square miles located in Montgomery County, has experienced fluctuating violent crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2021, the total number of violent crimes increased by 46.15%, rising from 13 to 19 incidents. During this same period, the population grew slightly by 0.96%, from 17,913 to 18,085 residents.
The city has consistently maintained a zero murder rate from 2010 to 2021, with no reported cases of murder or nonnegligent manslaughter. This statistic has remained constant despite the population growth, resulting in a consistently low murder rate of 0 per 1,000 people. The percentage of state crime for murder has also remained at 0% throughout this period, indicating that Vandalia has not contributed to Ohio's murder statistics.
Rape incidents in the city have shown a concerning upward trend. In 2010, there were 4 reported cases, which tripled to 12 by 2021. This represents a 200% increase over 11 years. The rape rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.22 in 2010 to 0.66 in 2021, a 200% increase. The city's percentage of state rape crimes also increased significantly, from 0.15% in 2010 to 0.37% in 2021, indicating that Vandalia's contribution to Ohio's rape statistics has more than doubled.
Robbery trends have fluctuated over the years. In 2010, there were 3 reported robberies, which increased to a peak of 16 in 2018 before dropping to 3 again in 2021. The robbery rate per 1,000 people followed a similar pattern, peaking at 0.88 in 2018 and returning to 0.17 in 2021. The city's percentage of state robbery crimes increased from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.20% in 2018, before decreasing to 0.05% in 2021.
Aggravated assault cases have shown some variability. In 2010, there were 6 reported cases, which peaked at 12 in 2012, and then decreased to 4 in 2021. The aggravated assault rate per 1,000 people followed a similar trend, peaking at 0.67 in 2012 and declining to 0.22 in 2021. The city's percentage of state aggravated assault crimes fluctuated, reaching a high of 0.12% in 2012 before dropping to 0.02% in 2021.
There appears to be a correlation between population density and violent crime rates in the city. As the population density increased from 1,450 per square mile in 2010 to 1,464 in 2021, the total number of violent crimes also rose. However, this correlation is not consistent across all types of violent crime, as evidenced by the fluctuations in robbery and aggravated assault rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), it is anticipated that rape cases may continue to rise if current trends persist. Robbery and aggravated assault rates are likely to remain volatile but may stabilize at lower levels compared to their peak years. The murder rate is expected to remain at zero, barring any significant changes in local conditions.
In summary, Vandalia has experienced a complex evolution of violent crime over the past decade. While the city has maintained a zero murder rate, it has seen a significant increase in rape cases and fluctuating trends in robbery and aggravated assault. These trends, coupled with the slight population growth, suggest a need for targeted crime prevention strategies, particularly in addressing sexual violence. The city's changing contribution to state crime statistics also indicates a shifting landscape of criminal activity that warrants continued monitoring and proactive measures to ensure community safety.
