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Violent Crime Trends in Napoleon, Ohio: A Decade of Shifting Patterns
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Napoleon, located in Ohio, has experienced fluctuating violent crime rates over the past decade, set against a backdrop of modest population changes. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes increased by 50%, from 14 to 21 incidents, while the population decreased by 6%, from 10,268 to 9,652 residents.
Murder rates in the city have remained remarkably low, with only one reported case in 2012 throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2022. This translates to a murder rate of 0.1 per 1,000 people in 2012, dropping to 0 in subsequent years. The single murder in 2012 represented 0.31% of the state's total murders that year, a significant figure for a small city. The absence of murders in other years suggests a generally safe environment in terms of lethal violence.
Rape incidents have fluctuated over the years, with a notable increase from 2 cases in 2013 to 7 cases in 2019, before decreasing to 4 cases in 2022. The rape rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.2 in 2013 to 0.73 in 2019, then declined to 0.41 in 2022. The city's contribution to the state's total rape cases peaked at 0.29% in 2012 and stood at 0.1% in 2022, indicating a relatively low incidence compared to the state overall.
Robbery trends show a decline over time, with 5 cases in 2010 dropping to 0 cases from 2020 to 2022. The robbery rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.49 in 2010 to 0 in recent years. The city's share of state robberies peaked at 0.04% in 2017 and 2018 but has since fallen to 0%, suggesting an improvement in this area of violent crime.
Aggravated assault cases have shown an overall increase, rising from 3 incidents in 2010 to 17 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.29 in 2010 to 1.76 in 2022. The city's contribution to state aggravated assaults grew from 0.03% in 2010 to 0.1% in 2022, indicating a concerning trend in this category of violent crime.
There appears to be a correlation between the increase in violent crime and changes in racial demographics. As the white population percentage decreased slightly from 90% in 2013 to 87% in 2022, and the Hispanic population grew from 7% to 8% over the same period, violent crime incidents increased. However, it's important to note that correlation does not imply causation, and other factors may be at play.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can expect the total number of violent crimes to continue its upward trajectory, potentially reaching around 28-30 incidents annually. This projection is based on the observed increase from 14 incidents in 2010 to 21 in 2022, assuming a similar rate of growth.
In conclusion, Napoleon has experienced a complex evolution of violent crime patterns over the past decade. While murders remain extremely rare and robberies have decreased to zero, the city has seen concerning increases in aggravated assaults and fluctuating rates of rape. These trends, combined with subtle demographic shifts, suggest a changing landscape of public safety that warrants continued attention and proactive measures from local law enforcement and community leaders to ensure the well-being of Napoleon's residents.
