Robbery trends show a decline over time. In 2010, there were 3 robberies reported, which decreased to 1 in 2022. This represents a decrease from 0.79 to 0.28 robberies per 1,000 people. The city's contribution to the state's robbery statistics has fluctuated, peaking at 0.04% in 2010 and 2015, and dropping to 0.03% in 2022. This downward trend in robberies suggests improving safety conditions in the city.

Aggravated assault cases have shown the most significant fluctuations among violent crimes. From a high of 18 cases in 2013 (4.72 per 1,000 people), the number decreased to 4 cases in 2022 (1.13 per 1,000 people). The city's contribution to the state's aggravated assault statistics has also varied, peaking at 0.08% in 2013 and dropping to 0.02% in 2022. This overall downward trend in aggravated assaults is a positive sign for public safety.

There appears to be a correlation between the city's racial composition and violent crime rates. As the white population percentage increased from 79% in 2013 to 93% in 2022, the overall violent crime rate decreased. Concurrently, the percentage of residents identifying as two or more races decreased from 19% to 3%, which coincided with the decline in violent crimes.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall violent crime rates. Based on the current trends, we might expect to see murder rates remaining at or near zero, rape incidents potentially fluctuating between 0-1 cases per year, robbery cases likely to remain low, possibly averaging 0-1 incidents annually, and aggravated assaults potentially decreasing further, perhaps to an average of 2-3 cases per year.

In summary, Tracy City has shown a generally positive trend in reducing violent crime over the past decade. The most significant improvements have been in aggravated assaults and robberies. While rape incidents have seen a slight increase in recent years, the overall numbers remain low. The city's changing demographic composition appears to correlate with these crime trends, suggesting that community dynamics may play a role in public safety outcomes. As the city moves forward, maintaining and building upon these positive trends will be crucial for ensuring the continued safety and well-being of its residents.