Motor vehicle theft in the city showed a more complex trend. The number of incidents increased from 16 in 2010 to 24 in 2022, a 50% increase. However, when adjusted for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents only increased slightly from 1.11 to 1.41. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.15% to 0.13%, suggesting that despite the local increase, the city's situation improved relative to state trends.

Arson cases in the city have remained relatively low and stable. There was 1 reported case in 2022, the same as in 2011 (the earliest year with data). The city's share of state arson cases fluctuated but remained low, at 0.19% in 2022. Due to the low numbers, it's difficult to draw significant conclusions about arson trends.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density increased from 938 per square mile in 2010 to 1,114 in 2022, overall property crime rates decreased, suggesting that increased urbanization did not lead to higher crime rates. The median income rose from $41,645 in 2013 to $53,735 in 2022, coinciding with the overall decrease in property crimes, which might indicate a potential relationship between improved economic conditions and reduced crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall declining trend in property crimes. Based on the historical data, we can estimate that by 2029, the total number of property crimes could decrease by another 15-20%, potentially reaching around 260-280 incidents annually. This prediction assumes that current socioeconomic trends and law enforcement efforts remain consistent.

In summary, Manchester has demonstrated a significant improvement in its property crime situation over the past decade, with substantial decreases in burglary and larceny-theft rates, despite population growth. The city's share of state crime has remained relatively stable or decreased in most categories, indicating that its improvements are generally in line with or better than state averages. The correlation between rising median income and decreasing crime rates suggests that economic development may have played a role in crime reduction. As the city continues to grow and develop, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for ensuring the safety and well-being of its residents.