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Violent Crime Trends in Shepherdsville: A Decade of Growth and Challenges
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Shepherdsville, Kentucky, a city located just south of Louisville, has experienced significant population growth and evolving crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the population increased by 22.4%, from 19,828 to 24,269 residents. During this same period, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, with 16 incidents reported in 2010 and 28 in 2022, representing a 75% increase. However, this increase should be considered in the context of the city's substantial population growth.
Murder rates in Shepherdsville have remained consistently low, with only two incidents reported over the 13-year period, one in 2010 and another in 2015. This translates to an average rate of 0.007 murders per 1,000 residents, significantly lower than many comparable cities. The percentage of state murders attributed to Shepherdsville never exceeded 0.97%, indicating that the city contributes minimally to Kentucky's overall murder statistics.
Rape incidents have shown some variability, ranging from 3 to 9 cases per year. The rate per 1,000 residents fluctuated between 0.14 and 0.44, with an average of 0.29. The city's contribution to state rape statistics varied, peaking at 1.19% in 2013 and dropping to 0.38% in 2014. Despite these fluctuations, there's no clear upward or downward trend, suggesting relatively stable rates when accounting for population growth.
Robbery cases in the city have shown a slight upward trend, increasing from 3 in 2010 to 9 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0.15 to 0.37 during this period. Notably, the city's contribution to state robbery statistics increased significantly, from 0.09% in 2010 to 1.26% in 2022. This suggests that while robberies have increased, the rise is more pronounced relative to state trends.
Aggravated assault cases have shown the most substantial increase among violent crimes, rising from 6 in 2010 to 14 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.30 to 0.58. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault statistics also rose, from 0.15% in 2010 to 0.85% in 2022. This trend indicates that aggravated assaults are becoming a more significant concern for the city.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate positive relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 1,253 per square mile in 2010 to 1,534 in 2022, the total number of violent crimes also trended upward. However, it's important to note that this relationship is not perfectly linear, as crime rates fluctuated year to year.
The racial composition of Shepherdsville has remained relatively stable, with the white population consistently representing over 90% of residents. Given this stability, no strong correlations can be drawn between racial demographics and crime trends.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that by 2029, Shepherdsville may see a continued modest increase in violent crimes, particularly in robberies and aggravated assaults. The total number of violent crimes could potentially reach around 35-40 incidents annually, assuming population growth and other factors remain consistent with current trends.
In summary, Shepherdsville has experienced a notable increase in violent crimes over the past decade, particularly in robberies and aggravated assaults. However, this increase should be contextualized within the city's significant population growth. Murder rates remain exceptionally low, while rape incidents have fluctuated without a clear trend. The city's contribution to state crime statistics has generally increased, most notably in robberies. As Shepherdsville continues to grow, addressing the rising trends in certain violent crimes while maintaining the low murder rate will be crucial for ensuring community safety and well-being.
