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Violent Crime Trends in Rosedale, Mississippi: Population Decline and Crime Rate Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Rosedale, located in Mississippi, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends. In 2010, the city recorded a total of 11 violent crimes, which represented a significant portion of the state's crime statistics for that year. Over the subsequent decade, the city experienced a notable population decline, dropping from 2,377 residents in 2010 to 1,991 in 2022, a decrease of approximately 16.2%.
The murder rate in Rosedale has remained remarkably stable over the reported period. With zero murders recorded in 2010, the city maintained this status throughout the decade. This translates to a consistent murder rate of 0 per 1,000 residents, regardless of population fluctuations. The percentage of state murders attributable to Rosedale also remained at 0% during this time, indicating that the city did not contribute to the state's overall murder statistics.
Rape incidents in the city show a concerning trend. In 2010, there was one reported case of rape, which accounted for 0.21% of the state's total. When adjusted for population, this translates to approximately 0.42 rapes per 1,000 residents in 2010. Given the population decline over the years, if this rate remained constant, it would represent a higher per capita incidence in later years, potentially reaching about 0.50 per 1,000 residents by 2022.
Robbery trends in Rosedale mirror those of rape. In 2010, one robbery was reported, representing 0.05% of the state's total robberies. This equates to about 0.42 robberies per 1,000 residents. As with rape, if this rate remained constant despite population decline, the per capita robbery rate could have increased to approximately 0.50 per 1,000 residents by 2022.
Aggravated assault was the most prevalent violent crime in Rosedale, with 9 incidents reported in 2010, accounting for 0.44% of the state's total. This translates to about 3.79 aggravated assaults per 1,000 residents in 2010. If this rate remained stable, the per capita incidence could have risen to approximately 4.52 per 1,000 residents by 2022 due to the population decrease.
When examining correlations, a strong inverse relationship appears between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 438 people per square mile in 2010 to 367 in 2022, the per capita crime rates potentially increased. Additionally, there's a notable correlation between the racial composition and crime trends. The Black population percentage increased slightly from 90% in 2013 to 93% in 2017, before decreasing to 85% in 2022. This fluctuation coincides with the potential changes in per capita crime rates, suggesting a complex interplay between demographic shifts and crime patterns.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends, if current patterns persist, we may see a continued increase in per capita violent crime rates over the next five years (up to 2029). This projection is based on the assumption that the population decline continues at its current rate while the absolute number of crimes remains relatively stable.
In summary, Rosedale's violent crime landscape is characterized by stability in absolute numbers but potential increases in per capita rates due to population decline. The most significant discoveries include the consistent absence of murders, the potential rise in per capita rates of rape and robbery, and the prevalence of aggravated assaults. These trends, coupled with demographic shifts, paint a complex picture of public safety in Rosedale, underscoring the need for targeted interventions and community-based solutions to address the unique challenges faced by this Mississippi community.
