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Violent Crime Trends in Rosebud, Missouri: A Decade of Stability in a Growing Small Town
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Rosebud, located in Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends. Over the past decade, this small community has experienced fluctuations in its violent crime rates, with a total of 5 reported incidents between 2011 and 2022. During this same period, the population showed modest growth, increasing from 1,507 in 2011 to 1,595 in 2022, representing a 5.8% increase.
The murder rate in the city has remained consistently at zero throughout the observed period. This absence of murders, despite the population growth, indicates a remarkably safe environment in terms of homicides. The murder rate per 1,000 people has stayed at 0, and the city has not contributed to the state's murder statistics.
Rape incidents in the city have shown some variation. There were no reported cases from 2011 to 2017. However, in 2018, there was 1 reported rape case, which represented 0.05% of the state's total. This translates to a rate of 0.61 per 1,000 people. In 2020, the number increased to 2 cases, accounting for 0.1% of the state's total, with a rate of 1.27 per 1,000 people. Notably, in 2021 and 2022, no rape cases were reported, suggesting a potential improvement in this area.
Robbery incidents have been non-existent in the city throughout the observed period. The robbery rate per 1,000 people has consistently remained at 0, and the city has not contributed to the state's robbery statistics. This absence of robberies, even as the population grew, indicates a particularly safe environment in terms of this type of crime.
Aggravated assault trends have shown some fluctuation. In 2011, there was 1 reported case, representing 0.01% of the state's total, with a rate of 0.66 per 1,000 people. From 2012 to 2021, no aggravated assaults were reported. However, in 2022, there was again 1 reported case, accounting for 0.01% of the state's total, with a rate of 0.63 per 1,000 people. This recent incident suggests the need for continued vigilance in preventing such crimes.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a weak relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 1,730 per square mile in 2011 to 1,831 in 2022, violent crime incidents remained sporadic and low. Median rent, which rose from $478 in 2013 to $969 in 2022, doesn't show a clear correlation with crime rates. The racial distribution, predominantly white (95% in 2022), has remained stable and doesn't appear to correlate significantly with crime trends.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), it's likely that the city will continue to experience very low violent crime rates. Based on historical data, we might expect to see 0-2 violent crime incidents per year, with rape and aggravated assault being the most likely types of incidents. However, the overall violent crime rate is expected to remain well below national averages.
In conclusion, Rosebud demonstrates a remarkably low violent crime profile. The absence of murders and robberies, coupled with sporadic and low incidents of rape and aggravated assault, paints a picture of a relatively safe community. While recent years have seen isolated incidents, the overall trend suggests a stable and secure environment. As the city continues to grow, maintaining these low crime rates will be crucial for the community's well-being and attractiveness to potential residents and businesses.
