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Property Crime Trends in Cuba, Missouri: A Decade of Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Cuba, Missouri, a small community with a population of 5,880 in 2022, has experienced fluctuating property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 0.55%, from 181 to 180 incidents. During this same period, the population increased by 6.81%, from 5,505 to 5,880 residents.
Burglary trends in the city have shown significant variations. In 2010, there were 23 burglaries, which increased to 28 in 2022, representing a 21.74% increase. The burglary rate per 1,000 people rose from 4.18 in 2010 to 4.76 in 2022. Notably, the city's share of state burglaries increased substantially from 0.07% in 2010 to 0.21% in 2022, indicating a growing contribution to statewide burglary statistics despite its small size.
Larceny-theft incidents decreased from 152 in 2010 to 140 in 2022, a 7.89% reduction. However, when considering population growth, the rate per 1,000 people decreased more significantly from 27.61 to 23.81. The city's proportion of state larceny-theft cases increased from 0.13% to 0.18% during this period, suggesting that while local incidents decreased, they remained a growing concern relative to state figures.
Motor vehicle theft showed a considerable increase, from 6 incidents in 2010 to 12 in 2022, a 100% rise. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 1.09 to 2.04. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts remained relatively stable, changing from 0.05% to 0.05% over the period, indicating that the increase was consistent with statewide trends.
Arson cases in the city have been sporadic and low in number. There were no reported cases in 2010 and 2022, with occasional incidents in between (e.g., 1 case in 2021). The inconsistent nature of arson incidents makes it difficult to establish a clear trend or meaningful per capita rate.
Examining correlations, a strong relationship emerges between property crime rates and population density. As the population density increased from 1,724 per square mile in 2010 to 1,841 in 2022, property crimes per 1,000 residents decreased from 32.88 to 30.61, suggesting that increased urbanization may have contributed to improved community vigilance or law enforcement effectiveness.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (until 2029), we anticipate a slight increase in overall property crimes. Burglaries are projected to continue their upward trend, potentially reaching 32-35 incidents annually. Larceny-theft is expected to stabilize around 135-145 cases per year. Motor vehicle thefts may increase to 15-18 incidents annually, reflecting the recent sharp rise. Arson cases are likely to remain sporadic, with 0-2 incidents per year.
In summary, Cuba has experienced a complex evolution in its property crime landscape. While overall property crime rates have slightly decreased relative to population growth, specific categories like burglary and motor vehicle theft have seen significant increases. The city's growing share of state crime statistics in these areas suggests a need for targeted prevention strategies. As the community continues to grow, maintaining a balance between urban development and effective crime prevention will be crucial for ensuring the safety and well-being of its residents.
