Robbery trends in the city have been relatively stable with some fluctuations. There were 29 robberies in 2010, which decreased to 28 in 2022, a 3.4% reduction. However, due to the population decrease, the robbery rate per 1,000 people actually increased slightly from 1.43 in 2010 to 1.41 in 2022. The city's share of state robberies increased from 0.39% in 2010 to 0.55% in 2022, indicating that while robberies have remained relatively stable in the city, they have become a larger portion of the state's total robberies.

Aggravated assault cases have shown a significant increase over the years. In 2010, there were 37 cases, which rose to 69 in 2022, representing an 86.5% increase. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 1.82 in 2010 to 3.48 in 2022. Despite this substantial increase, the city's share of state aggravated assaults only rose slightly from 0.28% in 2010 to 0.29% in 2022, suggesting that this trend might be part of a broader statewide increase in aggravated assaults.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong relationship between the city's changing racial demographics and violent crime trends. As the white population percentage decreased from 60% in 2013 to 51% in 2022, violent crimes generally increased. Simultaneously, the Black population percentage increased slightly from 34% to 36%, and the Hispanic population grew from 3% to 6%. This demographic shift coincides with the overall increase in violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults and rapes.

Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029, Roanoke Rapids may see a continued increase in violent crimes, particularly in aggravated assaults and rapes, if current trends persist. The murder rate is likely to remain volatile but potentially at lower levels than the peak seen in 2020. Robberies may continue to fluctuate but are not expected to change dramatically.

In summary, Roanoke Rapids has experienced a complex evolution in its violent crime landscape from 2010 to 2022. While murders have shown recent improvement, aggravated assaults and rapes have increased significantly. These trends, coupled with demographic shifts, suggest a changing social dynamic in the city that warrants attention from law enforcement and community leaders. The projected increase in violent crimes over the next five years underscores the importance of implementing targeted crime prevention strategies and addressing underlying socio-economic factors to improve public safety in Roanoke Rapids.