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Violent Crime Trends in Pine Knoll Shores: A Decade of Stability Amidst Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Pine Knoll Shores, located in North Carolina, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends. Over the period from 2011 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated minimally, ranging from 0 to 2 incidents per year. This relatively stable crime rate occurred against a backdrop of population decline, with the town's population decreasing from 1,572 in 2011 to 1,363 in 2022, representing a 13.3% decrease.
Regarding murder and nonnegligent manslaughter, the city has maintained a consistently safe record. Throughout the entire period from 2011 to 2022, there were no reported cases of murder or nonnegligent manslaughter. This zero-incident rate remained constant despite the population changes, resulting in a consistent 0% contribution to the state's murder statistics. This trend suggests a remarkably safe environment in terms of the most serious violent crimes.
The data for rape incidents in the city is largely unavailable, with most years marked as "No Data Available." The only recorded incident was in 2012, with one case reported. This single case represented 0.08% of the state's total rape cases for that year. Given the limited data, it's challenging to draw meaningful conclusions about rape trends in the city.
Robbery trends in the city have been minimal. Only one robbery was reported throughout the entire period, occurring in 2016. This single incident represented 0.02% of the state's total robberies for that year. The robbery rate per 1,000 people was approximately 0.70 in 2016, based on the population of 1,419 that year. The absence of robberies in other years indicates an overall low risk for this type of crime in the community.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city, though still occurring at low rates. The number of aggravated assaults ranged from 0 to 2 per year. The highest number (2) occurred in 2011, representing 0.02% of the state's total. In recent years, there was one case each in 2014, 2017, 2018, 2020, and 2022. The rate per 1,000 people fluctuated but remained low, with the highest being approximately 1.27 per 1,000 in 2011 (2 cases with a population of 1,572).
Examining correlations, there appears to be a weak inverse relationship between population density and violent crime. As the population density decreased from 711 per square mile in 2011 to 617 per square mile in 2022, the overall violent crime rate remained low but showed slight fluctuations. However, this correlation is not strong enough to suggest a causal relationship.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), it's reasonable to expect the city to maintain its low violent crime rates. Based on the historical data, we might anticipate between 0 to 2 violent crimes per year, with aggravated assault likely remaining the most common type. However, given the small population and low crime numbers, even a single incident can cause significant percentage fluctuations.
In summary, Pine Knoll Shores has demonstrated a consistently low violent crime rate over the past decade, with no murders, rare robberies, and infrequent aggravated assaults. This trend has persisted despite population changes, suggesting a stable and safe community environment. The city's contribution to state crime statistics remains minimal across all categories of violent crime, indicating that it is a relatively secure place to live within North Carolina.
