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Violent Crime Trends in Rising Sun, Maryland: A Decade of Fluctuations in a Small Town
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Rising Sun, located in Maryland, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2019, the total number of violent crimes in this small community fluctuated, peaking at 11 incidents in 2016 and 2017, before declining to 6 in 2019. This represents a 100% increase from 2010 to 2019. During the same period, the population decreased from 7,331 in 2010 to 6,781 in 2019, a 7.5% decline.
Examining murder rates, Rising Sun has maintained a consistent record of zero murders from 2010 to 2019. This stability is particularly noteworthy given the population changes, indicating a consistently safe environment in terms of homicides. The percentage of state crime for murder has remained at 0% throughout this period, suggesting that the town has not contributed to Maryland's overall murder statistics.
Robbery trends in the city show some fluctuation over the years. In 2010, there were no reported robberies. The number increased to 2 in 2011, decreased to 1 in 2012 and 2014, and then rose again to 2 in 2016. By 2019, robberies had returned to zero. The robbery rate per 1,000 people peaked in 2016 at 0.29 and fell to 0 by 2019. The percentage of state robberies attributable to Rising Sun remained low, reaching a maximum of 0.04% in 2011.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of incidents rose from 3 in 2010 to a peak of 11 in 2017, before declining to 6 in 2019. This represents a 100% increase from 2010 to 2019. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.41 in 2010 to 1.58 in 2017, then decreased to 0.88 in 2019. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault figures grew from 0.04% in 2010 to 0.14% in 2017, settling at 0.08% in 2019.
There appears to be a correlation between violent crime rates and population density. As the population density decreased from 4,470 people per square mile in 2010 to 4,134 in 2019, violent crime incidents initially increased before declining in later years. This suggests that factors beyond population density may influence crime rates in the city.
Median rent shows a potential correlation with violent crime trends. As median rent increased from $740 in 2013 to $940 in 2019, violent crime incidents initially rose but then declined. This could indicate a complex relationship between economic factors and crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends, it's estimated that by 2029 (five years from now), Rising Sun may see a slight decrease in overall violent crime incidents. The model suggests aggravated assaults could stabilize around 5-6 incidents per year, while robberies may remain infrequent, occurring once every few years.
In summary, Rising Sun has experienced fluctuations in violent crime over the past decade, with aggravated assault being the primary concern. Despite these variations, the absence of murders and the recent decline in overall violent crime incidents suggest a generally safe environment. The town's contribution to state crime statistics remains minimal, indicating that local law enforcement efforts may be effective in managing crime rates relative to the broader state context. As the community continues to evolve, ongoing monitoring of these trends will be crucial for maintaining public safety and informing local policies.
