Robbery cases in Annapolis have shown a significant decline. In 2010, there were 91 robberies (2.61 per 1,000 residents), which decreased to 42 in 2022 (1.12 per 1,000 residents), a 53.85% reduction. The city's percentage of state robberies also dropped from 1.88% to 1.18% during this period. This substantial decrease in robberies, even as the population grew, is a positive trend for public safety in the city.

Aggravated assault incidents have increased over the years. In 2010, there were 124 cases (3.56 per 1,000 residents), which rose to 155 in 2022 (4.15 per 1,000 residents), a 25% increase. The city's share of state aggravated assaults increased from 1.58% to 2.35%. This upward trend in assaults, outpacing population growth, may indicate rising tensions or conflicts within the community.

Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The increase in violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults, coincides with a slight increase in population density, which rose from 4,831 people per square mile in 2010 to 5,181 in 2022. Additionally, there's a notable correlation between changes in racial demographics and crime trends. As the white population percentage decreased from 59% in 2013 to 56% in 2022, and the Hispanic population increased from 17% to 22% between 2013 and 2019 before slightly decreasing to 17% in 2022, violent crime rates fluctuated, suggesting potential socio-economic factors at play.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall violent crime rates. Murders are likely to remain low, while rape incidents may continue to rise unless targeted interventions are implemented. Robbery rates are expected to maintain their downward trend, while aggravated assaults may see a slight increase or stabilization.

In summary, Annapolis has experienced mixed trends in violent crime over the past decade. The significant reduction in murders and robberies is encouraging, but the rise in rapes and aggravated assaults presents ongoing challenges. These trends, when viewed alongside demographic changes, suggest a complex interplay of factors influencing public safety in the city. As Annapolis continues to grow and evolve, addressing these crime trends will be crucial for maintaining and improving the quality of life for its residents.