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Violent Crime Trends in Ragland: A Decade of Decline in an Alabama Town
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Ragland, located in Alabama, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, with a notable decrease from 7 incidents in 2010 to 2 incidents in 2022, representing a 71.4% reduction. This change occurred against a backdrop of population decline, with the town's population decreasing from 4,215 in 2010 to 3,148 in 2022, a 25.3% reduction.
Murder trends in the city have been sporadic, with only one recorded incident in 2012. This single event represented 0.39% of the state's murders that year. Given the low population, this translated to a rate of approximately 0.23 murders per 1,000 residents in 2012. The absence of murders in other years suggests that this was an isolated incident rather than a persistent trend. The low frequency of murders makes it challenging to establish a meaningful trend or correlation with population changes.
Rape incidents have been rare in the city, with only one reported case in 2012, accounting for 0.12% of the state's total that year. This translates to a rate of about 0.23 rapes per 1,000 residents for 2012. The absence of reported rapes in other years indicates that sexual violence is not a prevalent issue in the community, but the isolated incident highlights the need for continued vigilance and support services.
Robbery trends show minimal activity, with only two reported incidents over the 12-year period: one in 2011 and another in 2013. These incidents represented 0.02% and 0.03% of the state's robberies in their respective years. The robbery rate per 1,000 residents was approximately 0.23 in 2011 and 0.24 in 2013. The infrequency of robberies suggests that property-related violent crime is not a significant concern in the area.
Aggravated assault has been the most common form of violent crime in the city, though numbers have fluctuated. In 2010, there were 7 cases (1.66 per 1,000 residents), which decreased to 2 cases in 2022 (0.64 per 1,000 residents). This represents a 71.4% decrease in the number of aggravated assaults and a 61.4% decrease in the rate per 1,000 residents. The percentage of state aggravated assaults attributable to the city has also decreased from 0.12% in 2010 to 0.02% in 2022, indicating that the city's contribution to state-wide aggravated assault figures has diminished over time.
There appears to be a correlation between the declining population density and the reduction in violent crimes. As the population density decreased from 251 people per square mile in 2010 to 187 in 2022, the total number of violent crimes also decreased. This suggests that the lower population density may contribute to reduced opportunities for violent confrontations.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it is projected that violent crime rates will continue to remain low or potentially decrease further over the next five years (up to 2029). The city may experience between 0 to 2 violent crimes annually, with aggravated assault likely to remain the most common type of violent offense.
In summary, Ragland has experienced a significant reduction in violent crime over the past decade, paralleling its population decline. The most notable trend has been the decrease in aggravated assaults, while other forms of violent crime have remained rare occurrences. These findings suggest that the city has become relatively safer over time, with violent crime rates well below what might be expected for its population size. The challenge for local authorities will be to maintain these low crime rates while addressing the underlying factors contributing to population decline.
