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Violent Crime Trends in Ariton, Alabama: A Small Town's Stable Safety Profile
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Ariton, Alabama, a small town with a population of 1,212 as of 2022, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends. This analysis focuses on data from 2010, revealing a remarkably low incidence of violent crime. In that year, the total number of violent crimes reported was just two, both categorized as aggravated assaults. It's worth noting that the town has experienced a significant population decline, decreasing from 1,465 in 2010 to 1,212 in 2022, representing a 17.3% reduction.
The absence of reported murders, rapes, and robberies in Ariton suggests that these types of violent crimes are not significant concerns in this small community. However, this lack of data also limits the ability to analyze trends or compare rates to state percentages for these specific crime categories. The only violent crime category with reported data is aggravated assault. In 2010, the two reported cases represented 0.03% of Alabama's total aggravated assaults, translating to a rate of approximately 1.37 aggravated assaults per 1,000 residents.
Examining potential correlations between violent crime and other factors proves challenging due to the limited data available. As the population density decreased from 287 people per square mile in 2010 to 238 in 2022, there was no apparent increase in reported violent crime. The median rent saw a significant increase from $299 in 2016 to $749 in 2022, but without corresponding crime data for these years, it's not possible to draw correlations between housing costs and crime rates.
The racial distribution of Ariton has remained relatively stable over the years, with the white population consistently representing the majority (81% in 2022). The Black population saw a decrease from 18% in 2013 to 9% in 2022, while the Hispanic population increased from 1% to 8% during the same period. However, the limited crime data prevents any meaningful correlation between these demographic changes and violent crime trends.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends in Ariton is challenging due to the scarcity of data. Nevertheless, based on the stable low crime rate observed in 2010 and the declining population, it's reasonable to predict that violent crime rates in Ariton will likely remain low for the next seven years, up to 2029. The small-town nature and decreasing population density may continue to contribute to a relatively safe environment.
In conclusion, Ariton appears to have a very low incidence of violent crime, with aggravated assault being the only reported violent crime in the available data. The absence of reported murders, rapes, and robberies suggests a relatively safe community. However, the limited data makes it difficult to draw comprehensive conclusions or identify significant trends. The town's decreasing population and stable racial composition, combined with the low crime rate observed, indicate that Ariton is likely to maintain its low violent crime profile in the coming years.
