Robbery trends in the city were minimal, with only one reported case in 2013. This single robbery represented 0.01% of the state's total robberies that year. Based on the 2013 population of 1,060, this translates to a rate of about 0.94 robberies per 1,000 residents. For all other years in the dataset, no robberies were reported, indicating an overall very low robbery rate for the community.

Aggravated assault was the most frequently reported violent crime in Puryear, though numbers remained low. The highest number of aggravated assaults was 4 in both 2011 and 2012, representing 0.02% of the state's total each year. This translates to rates of approximately 4.14 and 4.18 assaults per 1,000 residents in 2011 and 2012, respectively. The number of aggravated assaults fluctuated between 0 and 2 in other years, with no clear trend. The percentage of state aggravated assaults ranged from 0% to 0.02%, indicating a consistently small contribution to the state's overall figures.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a weak relationship between population density and violent crime rates. For instance, in 2014, when the population density peaked at 1,146 people per square mile, the city reported 2 violent crimes. However, in years with lower population densities, crime rates didn't consistently decrease, suggesting other factors may have more influence on crime rates in this small community.

There's a noticeable correlation between changes in racial demographics and violent crime rates. As the white population percentage decreased from 96% in 2015 to 76% in 2022, there was a slight increase in the diversity of the population. Concurrently, there was a small uptick in reported violent crimes, from 0 in 2015 to 2 in 2019. However, this correlation should be interpreted cautiously due to the small numbers involved and potential influence of other factors.

Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's challenging to forecast with high confidence due to the low and inconsistent crime numbers. However, if current trends continue, we might expect the violent crime rate to remain low, potentially fluctuating between 0 and 2 incidents annually over the next five years (up to 2029). This prediction assumes no significant changes in population or other socioeconomic factors.

In summary, Puryear has maintained relatively low violent crime rates over the past decade. The most significant findings include the isolated murder case in 2017, the absence of reported rapes, and the fluctuating but generally low numbers of aggravated assaults. While there are some correlations between demographic changes and crime rates, the small population and low crime numbers make it difficult to draw definitive conclusions. Overall, Puryear appears to be a community with infrequent violent crime occurrences, with aggravated assault being the most common type of violent crime reported.