Loading Content...
Property Crime Trends in Athens, Tennessee: A Decade of Fluctuations and Improvements
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Athens, Tennessee, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends over the past decade. With a population of 23,879 in 2022 and spanning 15.51 square miles, this small city has experienced notable fluctuations in its property crime rates. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 23.7%, from 1,052 to 803 incidents. During this same period, the population remained relatively stable, with a slight decrease of 0.2% from 23,927 to 23,879 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend over the years. In 2010, there were 208 burglaries, which decreased to 125 in 2022, representing a 39.9% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 8.69 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 5.23 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, while the number of burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.48% in 2010 to 0.93% in 2022, suggesting that burglary rates may have declined more rapidly in other parts of the state.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also experienced a decline. The number of incidents dropped from 799 in 2010 to 602 in 2022, a 24.7% decrease. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 33.39 to 25.21 over the same period. However, like burglary, the city's share of state larceny-theft incidents increased from 0.68% to 0.79%, indicating a slower rate of decline compared to the state average.
Motor vehicle theft showed a more complex pattern. While the number of incidents increased from 45 in 2010 to 76 in 2022, a 68.9% rise, the rate per 1,000 people also increased from 1.88 to 3.18. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated but ultimately remained stable, moving from 0.43% in 2010 to 0.43% in 2022, suggesting that this trend may be part of a broader state-wide increase.
Arson cases in the city have remained relatively low but volatile. The number of incidents doubled from 1 in 2010 to 2 in 2022, with a peak of 9 cases in 2020. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.04 to 0.08 over the 12-year period. The city's share of state arson cases increased from 0.13% to 0.37%, indicating a faster growth rate compared to the state average.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $38,965 in 2013 to $46,406 in 2022, overall property crime rates decreased. Additionally, there seems to be a weak positive correlation between population density and motor vehicle theft rates, with both showing an overall increasing trend from 2010 to 2022.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued gradual decline in overall property crime rates. Burglary and larceny-theft are expected to continue their downward trends, potentially reaching around 100 and 550 incidents respectively by 2029. Motor vehicle theft may stabilize or show a slight increase, potentially reaching around 80-85 incidents annually. Arson cases are predicted to remain low but variable, likely ranging between 1-5 incidents per year.
In conclusion, Athens has shown a general improvement in property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. However, the increase in motor vehicle thefts and the city's growing share of state crime in some categories suggest areas for continued vigilance and targeted crime prevention strategies. The correlation between rising incomes and declining crime rates highlights the potential impact of economic factors on community safety. As the city moves forward, maintaining this positive trajectory while addressing specific challenges will be crucial for ensuring the continued safety and well-being of its residents.
