Robbery incidents in the city decreased from 5 in 2010 to 2 in 2022, a 60% reduction. The robbery rate per 1,000 people decreased slightly from 1.06 to 0.51 during this period. The city's share of state robberies fluctuated but overall decreased from 0.07% in 2010 to 0.04% in 2022, indicating a positive trend in reducing this type of crime relative to the state.

Aggravated assault cases saw a significant decrease from 59 in 2010 to 39 in 2022, a 33.9% reduction. However, due to the population decline, the rate of aggravated assaults per 1,000 people actually increased slightly from 12.46 to 9.94. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault statistics decreased from 0.44% in 2010 to 0.16% in 2022, suggesting improvements in this area relative to state trends.

Examining correlations between violent crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The city's population density decreased from 1,175 people per square mile in 2010 to 973 in 2022, which loosely correlates with the overall decrease in violent crimes. Additionally, there's a notable correlation between the racial composition and crime rates. As the Black population percentage increased slightly from 62% in 2013 to 66% in 2022, violent crime rates fluctuated but generally decreased, suggesting that racial demographics alone are not a strong predictor of crime rates in this city.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall violent crime rates if current trends continue. Murder rates may remain relatively steady at 1-2 per year, while rape and robbery incidents could potentially decrease further if prevention efforts are maintained or enhanced. Aggravated assaults may continue to show a gradual decline in absolute numbers, but the rate per 1,000 people could remain relatively stable due to the ongoing population decline.

In summary, Plymouth has shown a complex evolution of violent crime trends over the past decade. While overall violent crime numbers have decreased, the rates per capita for some categories have increased due to the declining population. The city's contribution to state crime statistics has generally decreased for most categories, suggesting some success in local crime prevention efforts. However, the persistent occurrence of serious crimes like murder and rape, despite their low numbers, indicates ongoing challenges for this small community. Moving forward, addressing the underlying factors contributing to violent crime while managing the impacts of population decline will be crucial for improving public safety in Plymouth.