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Violent Crime Trends in Newton, NC: A Decade of Fluctuations and Improvements
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Newton, located in North Carolina, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends. From 2011 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, with a notable decrease from 63 incidents in 2014 to 31 in 2022, marking a 50.8% reduction. During this period, the population grew modestly from 20,590 in 2011 to 20,640 in 2022, a 0.24% increase.
The murder rate in the city has remained relatively low, with most years reporting zero incidents. However, there were notable exceptions in 2014 (2 murders), 2021 (3 murders), and 2022 (1 murder). When murders did occur, they represented a significant percentage of state crimes, peaking at 0.64% in 2014. The murder rate per 1,000 people reached its highest at 0.14 in 2021, dropping to 0.05 in 2022. This sporadic pattern suggests that while murders are rare, they can have a substantial impact on the city's crime statistics when they do occur.
Rape incidents in the city have been inconsistently reported, with many years showing "No Data Available." In years with data, the numbers fluctuated from a high of 6 cases in 2019 (0.36% of state crimes) to a low of 1 case in 2020 and 2022 (0.06% and 0.05% of state crimes, respectively). The rape rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.30 in 2019 to 0.05 in 2022, indicating a significant improvement in recent years.
Robbery trends show a general decline over the observed period. The number of robberies decreased from 10 in 2011 (0.14% of state crimes) to 3 in 2022 (0.06% of state crimes). The robbery rate per 1,000 people also dropped from 0.49 in 2011 to 0.15 in 2022, representing a 69.4% decrease. This downward trend suggests improved safety regarding property crimes in the city.
Aggravated assault cases have shown more volatility. The number peaked at 58 in 2018 (0.44% of state crimes) and dropped to 26 in 2022 (0.11% of state crimes). The rate per 1,000 people fluctuated accordingly, reaching a high of 2.86 in 2018 and falling to 1.26 in 2022. Despite these fluctuations, the overall trend shows a decrease in aggravated assaults in recent years.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between violent crime rates and the white population percentage. As the white population decreased from 73% in 2021 to 70% in 2022, violent crime rates also decreased. Additionally, there seems to be a weak positive correlation between population density and violent crime rates, with both showing slight increases in recent years.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029, which we'll present as five years from now), we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall violent crime rates. Murders are expected to remain rare but may occur sporadically. Robbery rates are likely to stabilize at their current low levels. Aggravated assaults may continue to fluctuate but with a generally downward trend.
In summary, Newton has shown overall improvement in violent crime rates over the past decade, particularly in robberies and aggravated assaults. While murders remain infrequent, their occurrence can significantly impact the city's crime statistics. The city's changing demographics and population density appear to have some influence on crime rates, though the relationship is complex and requires ongoing monitoring.
