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Violent Crime Trends in Plains, Montana: A Decade of Growth and Safety
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Plains, Montana, a small community nestled in the western part of the state, has experienced notable fluctuations in violent crime rates alongside significant population growth over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes in the city varied, with a peak of 5 incidents in 2014, 2016, 2017, and 2018, before declining to 1 incident in 2022. This represents an overall decrease of 0% in violent crime during this period. Concurrently, the population grew substantially from 1,901 in 2010 to 2,477 in 2022, marking a 30.3% increase.
In terms of murder and nonnegligent manslaughter, the city experienced only one such incident in 2014, accounting for 5.56% of the state's total that year. This translates to a rate of 0.59 murders per 1,000 people in 2014. In all other years, there were no reported murders, resulting in a 0% contribution to state figures. The isolated nature of this incident suggests it was an anomaly rather than indicative of a broader trend in the community.
Rape incidents in the city were infrequent, with only one reported case in 2014 and another in 2016. These cases represented 0.36% and 0.31% of the state's total rapes in their respective years. The rate of rape per 1,000 people was 0.59 in 2014 and 0.59 in 2016. The low frequency of these crimes makes it challenging to discern a clear trend, but it's noteworthy that no rapes were reported in the most recent years of data.
Robbery in Plains was exceptionally rare, with only one incident reported in 2010, accounting for 1.09% of the state's robberies that year. This translates to a rate of 0.53 robberies per 1,000 people in 2010. Since then, no robberies have been reported, indicating a sustained period of absence for this type of crime in the community.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of incidents fluctuated over the years, peaking at 5 in 2017 and 2018, before dropping to 1 in 2022. The rate of aggravated assault per 1,000 people reached its highest at 2.85 in 2017 and fell to 0.40 in 2022. The city's contribution to the state's total aggravated assaults varied, reaching a maximum of 0.40% in 2018 and decreasing to 0.04% in 2022. This trend suggests a recent improvement in public safety regarding serious assaults.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 3,093 per square mile in 2010 to 4,030 in 2022, the overall violent crime rate showed a general downward trend. This could suggest that increased urbanization or community development may have contributed to improved safety measures.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), Plains may see a continuation of the recent low crime rates, with potentially 1-2 violent crimes per year. This prediction is based on the overall downward trend observed in recent years, particularly the sharp decrease to a single violent crime in 2022.
In summary, Plains has demonstrated resilience in maintaining relatively low violent crime rates despite significant population growth. The most notable trend has been the reduction in aggravated assaults, which constitute the majority of violent crimes in the area. The city's ability to keep violent crime low while experiencing population growth suggests effective community policing or social cohesion. As the town continues to grow, maintaining these low crime rates will be crucial for the ongoing safety and quality of life of its residents.
