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Property Crime Trends in Hamilton, Montana: A Decade of Significant Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Hamilton, located in Montana, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased significantly from 201 to 69, representing a 65.7% reduction. This decline occurred alongside population growth, with the city expanding from 7,347 residents in 2010 to 8,514 in 2022, a 15.9% increase.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a marked decline over the years. In 2010, there were 22 burglaries, which decreased to just 1 in 2022, a 95.5% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 2.99 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 0.12 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries also dropped dramatically, from 1.19% in 2010 to 0.06% in 2022. This substantial decrease suggests improved security measures or changes in local law enforcement strategies.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also saw a significant decline. From 169 incidents in 2010, it decreased to 65 in 2022, a 61.5% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 23.0 in 2010 to 7.6 in 2022. However, the city's share of state larceny-theft cases fluctuated, starting at 1.47% in 2010, peaking at 1.56% in 2011, and settling at 0.52% in 2022. This suggests that while larceny-theft decreased locally, the reduction was less pronounced compared to state-wide trends.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed an interesting pattern. From 10 incidents in 2010, it decreased to 3 in 2022, a 70% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 1.36 in 2010 to 0.35 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated, starting at 1.26% in 2010, dropping to 0.31% in 2016 and 2017, before rising slightly to 0.19% in 2022. This indicates that motor vehicle theft in the city decreased more rapidly than the state average until 2017, after which the trend somewhat reversed.
Arson cases in the city were relatively rare but showed a complete elimination by 2022. From 1 incident in 2010, arson cases peaked at 3 in 2011 and 2016, before dropping to 0 from 2018 onwards. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 0.14 in 2010 to 0 in 2022. The city's share of state arson cases fluctuated significantly, peaking at 3.66% in 2011 before dropping to 0% from 2018 onwards. This suggests a successful eradication of arson incidents in recent years.
A strong correlation exists between the decline in property crimes and the increase in median income. As the median income rose from $32,465 in 2013 to $45,765 in 2022, a 40.9% increase, property crimes decreased by 65.2% in the same period. Additionally, there's a notable correlation between the increase in homeownership rates and the decrease in property crimes. The percentage of owner-occupied homes rose from 56% in 2019 to 62% in 2022, coinciding with a 53.4% decrease in property crimes during this period.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, we can forecast that by 2029 (five years from now), property crimes in Hamilton may continue to decrease, potentially reaching around 40-50 incidents annually. This prediction assumes the continuation of current economic trends and community initiatives.
In conclusion, Hamilton has experienced a remarkable reduction in property crimes over the past decade, defying the typical correlation between population growth and increased crime rates. The significant improvements in burglary and larceny-theft rates, coupled with the complete elimination of arson cases, highlight the effectiveness of local crime prevention strategies. These positive trends, along with rising incomes and homeownership rates, suggest a growing sense of community stability and security in Hamilton.
