Violent Crime Trends in Oakley, Kansas: A Decade of Low Rates and Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
DATA SOURCE
Oakley, Kansas, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. With a population that has grown from 2,098 in 2010 to 2,251 in 2022, representing a 7.3% increase, the city has experienced fluctuations in its violent crime rates. The total number of violent crimes has varied, ranging from a low of 0 in 2015 to a high of 4 in 2016, with no clear consistent trend over the years.
Regarding murder rates, the city has maintained a consistent record of zero murders throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2016. This statistic remains unchanged relative to population growth, consistently representing 0 murders per 1,000 residents. The percentage of state crime for murder also remains at 0% throughout this period, indicating that Oakley has not contributed to the state's murder statistics.
Rape incidents in the city were non-existent from 2010 to 2015, but saw a significant increase in 2016 with 2 reported cases. This translates to a rate of 0.93 rapes per 1,000 residents in 2016, up from 0 in previous years. The percentage of state crime for rape jumped from 0% to 0.22% in 2016, indicating that the city suddenly accounted for a small but notable portion of the state's rape cases that year.
Robbery rates in Oakley have remained consistently at zero from 2010 to 2016. Similar to murder rates, this translates to 0 robberies per 1,000 residents and 0% of state crime for robbery throughout the entire period, suggesting that robbery is not a significant concern in the city.
Aggravated assault trends show more variation. The city reported 3 cases in 2010, 2 in 2011, 3 in 2013 and 2014, 0 in 2015, and 2 in 2016. The rate per 1,000 residents fluctuated accordingly, from 1.43 in 2010 to 0.93 in 2016. The percentage of state crime for aggravated assault ranged from 0.05% in 2010 to 0.03% in 2016, with a notable drop to 0% in 2015.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a weak relationship between violent crime and population density. As the population density increased from 1,091 per square mile in 2010 to 1,170 in 2022, violent crime rates fluctuated without a clear pattern. Median rent, which rose from $513 in 2013 to $781 in 2022, doesn't show a strong correlation with violent crime trends.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), based on the limited and fluctuating data available, it's challenging to provide a precise prediction. However, if current patterns persist, we might expect the violent crime rate to continue fluctuating between 0 and 4 incidents per year, with aggravated assault likely remaining the most common violent crime.
In summary, Oakley has maintained relatively low violent crime rates over the past decade, with no murders or robberies, and only occasional incidents of rape and aggravated assault. The most significant change was the appearance of rape cases in 2016, which warrants attention. Overall, the city's violent crime trends suggest a relatively safe environment, though continued vigilance and community-based crime prevention strategies would be beneficial to maintain and potentially improve this status.
