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Property Crime Decline in Ellsworth, Kansas: A Decade of Progress
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Ellsworth, located in Kansas, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. Over the period from 2010 to 2022, the city experienced a significant decrease in total property crimes, dropping from 52 incidents in 2010 to 20 in 2022, representing a 61.5% reduction. This decline occurred against a backdrop of population change, with the city's population decreasing from 3,551 in 2010 to 3,427 in 2022, a modest 3.5% reduction.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable downward trend over the years. In 2010, there were 8 burglaries reported, which decreased to 5 in 2022, marking a 37.5% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 2.25 in 2010 to 1.46 in 2022. Interestingly, while the absolute number of burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries remained relatively stable, fluctuating between 0.05% and 0.16% over the period. This suggests that while the city improved its burglary situation, it maintained a consistent proportion of the state's burglary incidents.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, also showed a decreasing trend. In 2010, there were 40 larceny thefts reported, which decreased to 15 in 2022, a substantial 62.5% reduction. The larceny theft rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 11.26 in 2010 to 4.38 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny thefts remained relatively low, hovering between 0.04% and 0.10% throughout the period. This indicates that the city has made significant progress in reducing larceny thefts, outpacing the state-level improvements.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has fluctuated over the years but shows an overall decreasing trend. From 4 incidents in 2010, it dropped to 0 in 2022. The motor vehicle theft rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 1.13 in 2010 to 0 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts varied between 0% and 0.09% over the period, indicating that motor vehicle theft is not a significant issue for the city compared to state levels.
Arson incidents in the city have been sporadic and infrequent. There were no reported arsons in most years, with occasional incidents in 2015 (1 case), 2018 (1 case), and 2021 (2 cases). The arson rate per 1,000 residents in these years was 0.29, 0.29, and 0.59 respectively. The city's share of state arsons in these years was notably high, reaching 0.25% in 2015, 0.33% in 2018, and 1.15% in 2021. This suggests that while arson is not a frequent occurrence, when it does happen, it represents a significant portion of the state's arson cases.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and socioeconomic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $41,922 in 2013 to $50,337 in 2022, the total property crime incidents decreased from 65 to 20. This suggests that improving economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall decreasing trend. Based on the historical data and current trends, we can project that total property crimes could potentially decrease further to around 10-15 incidents per year by 2029. However, this prediction assumes that current socioeconomic conditions and law enforcement efforts remain consistent.
In summary, Ellsworth has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in its property crime situation over the past decade. The significant reductions in burglary, larceny theft, and motor vehicle theft, coupled with the sporadic nature of arson incidents, paint a picture of a city that has effectively addressed property crime issues. The correlation between rising median incomes and decreasing crime rates suggests that continued economic growth could further enhance public safety. As the city moves forward, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for ensuring the continued well-being and security of its residents.
