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Violent Crime Trends in Nowata: Oklahoma City's Remarkable Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Nowata, located in Oklahoma, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in both its violent crime rates and population. The total number of violent crimes decreased from 19 in 2011 to 5 in 2022, marking a 73.7% reduction. During this same period, the population declined from 4,532 in 2010 to 4,218 in 2022, a 6.9% decrease.
Examining murder trends, Nowata maintained a remarkably low rate, with only one reported case in 2020. This singular incident represented 0.42% of the state's murders that year. The murder rate per 1,000 people was 0.23 in 2020, an anomaly in an otherwise murder-free period. This isolated event suggests that murder is an extremely rare occurrence in the city, with no discernible trend due to its infrequency.
Rape incidents in the city fluctuated over the years, peaking at 3 cases in 2016 and dropping to 0 in 2022. The highest rate per 1,000 people was 0.64 in 2016, decreasing to 0 by 2022. The percentage of state rapes attributed to Nowata varied, reaching a high of 0.18% in 2011 and falling to 0% in 2022. This downward trend in recent years suggests improved safety for residents regarding sexual violence.
Robbery rates in Nowata remained consistently low, with most years reporting zero incidents. The city saw its first reported robbery in 2017, with one case each in 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020, representing between 0.03% to 0.05% of state robberies. The rate per 1,000 people never exceeded 0.22 during this period. The rarity of robberies indicates a relatively safe environment for personal property.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of cases peaked at 17 in 2011 and 2013, representing 0.16% and 0.17% of state totals respectively. By 2022, this had decreased to 5 cases, or 0.05% of the state's aggravated assaults. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 3.94 in 2011 to 1.19 in 2022, showing a significant improvement in public safety regarding violent confrontations.
A notable correlation exists between violent crime trends and population density. As the population density decreased from 1,331 per square mile in 2010 to 1,238 in 2022, there was a corresponding decline in violent crimes. This suggests that lower population density may contribute to reduced violent crime rates in the city.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends, it's projected that by 2029, Nowata could see its violent crime rate stabilize at around 3-4 incidents per year, assuming current trends continue. This forecast suggests a potential 20-40% further reduction in violent crimes from the 2022 levels.
In summary, Nowata has demonstrated a significant overall reduction in violent crime rates between 2010 and 2022, particularly in aggravated assaults, which constitute the majority of violent crimes in the area. The city's low and decreasing rates of murder, rape, and robbery, coupled with the declining trend in aggravated assaults, paint a picture of a community becoming increasingly safer. These improvements, occurring alongside a modest population decrease, suggest that Nowata is effectively managing public safety concerns, potentially making it an increasingly attractive location for residents seeking a low-crime environment.
