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Violent Crime Trends in Nags Head: Coastal Town's Fluctuating Safety Record
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Nags Head, located in North Carolina, is a coastal community known for its beaches and tourist attractions. Over the past decade, this small town has experienced fluctuations in its violent crime rates alongside steady population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes varied, with no clear consistent trend, while the population increased by 13.4% from 2,785 to 3,158 residents.
Murder rates in the city have remained exceptionally low, with only one year, 2019, reporting any murders (2 cases). This translates to a rate of 0.68 murders per 1,000 people in 2019, which was an anomaly compared to zero murders in all other years. The percentage of state murders attributed to Nags Head in 2019 was 0.53%, which is significant for a town of its size. However, given that this was an isolated incident and not part of a trend, it suggests that murder is not a persistent issue in the community.
Rape incidents have fluctuated over the years, with available data showing peaks in 2010 (6 cases) and 2021 (3 cases). The rate per 1,000 people was highest in 2010 at 2.15, decreasing to 0.97 in 2021. The percentage of state rapes attributed to Nags Head varied, reaching 0.53% in 2010 and dropping to 0.16% in 2021. This suggests that while rape occurs in the city, its prevalence relative to the state has decreased over time.
Robbery rates in the city have been consistently low, with a maximum of 4 cases reported in 2012, equating to 1.43 robberies per 1,000 people. The rate decreased to zero by 2020 and remained there through 2022. The city's contribution to state robbery figures peaked at 0.05% in 2012 and dropped to 0% in recent years, indicating that robbery is not a significant concern in the community.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent violent crime in Nags Head, with notable fluctuations. The highest number of cases was 17 in 2017, resulting in a rate of 5.93 per 1,000 people. The rate decreased to 2.85 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault figures peaked at 0.12% in 2017 and decreased to 0.04% in 2022. This suggests that while aggravated assault remains the primary violent crime concern, its relative impact has diminished in recent years.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 420 per square mile in 2010 to 477 in 2022, violent crime rates showed some fluctuation but did not consistently increase, suggesting other factors may be influencing crime rates more significantly.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), based on the historical data and assuming current trends continue, we might expect: Murder rates to remain at or near zero, with possible rare isolated incidents. Rape cases to fluctuate between 0-3 cases annually. Robbery rates to stay very low, likely between 0-1 cases per year. Aggravated assault cases to range between 5-10 annually, showing a potential slight decrease from peak years.
In summary, Nags Head has maintained relatively low violent crime rates despite population growth. The most significant violent crime concern remains aggravated assault, though its prevalence has shown signs of decreasing in recent years. The city's contribution to state crime figures across all categories has generally decreased, indicating improved safety relative to the rest of North Carolina. While fluctuations occur, the overall violent crime trend appears to be stabilizing or slightly decreasing, which bodes well for the safety and quality of life in this coastal community.
