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Violent Crime Trends in Muldraugh, Kentucky: A Decade of Sporadic Incidents
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Muldraugh, Kentucky, a small urban area with a population of 1,222 as of 2022, has experienced fluctuating violent crime rates over the past decade. From 2011 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes varied, reaching a peak of 3 incidents in 2013, 2015, and 2020, while dropping to zero in 2017 and 2022. During this period, the population decreased from 1,288 in 2011 to 1,222 in 2022, a 5.12% decline.
Murder rates in the city have remained consistently at zero from 2011 to 2022, with no reported cases throughout this period. This stability in the absence of murders is notable, especially considering the population fluctuations. The murder rate per 1,000 people has consequently remained at zero, and the city has consistently accounted for 0% of the state's murder cases.
Rape incidents in the city have been sporadic. There were two reported cases in 2013, one in 2021, and no cases in the other years from 2011 to 2022. The rape rate per 1,000 people peaked at 1.82 in 2013 when the population was 1,101. In 2021, with one case and a population of 1,133, the rate was 0.88 per 1,000 people. The city's contribution to the state's rape cases was highest in 2013 at 0.3% and 0.11% in 2021, indicating a very small portion of the state's total.
Robbery trends show occasional occurrences with no consistent pattern. Single robbery incidents were reported in 2012, 2016, and 2018, with two cases in 2019. The robbery rate per 1,000 people was highest in 2019 at 1.92, given the population of 1,041. The city's contribution to the state's robbery cases peaked at 0.1% in 2019. In other years, including 2020-2022, no robberies were reported.
Aggravated assault has been the most frequent violent crime in the city. The number of cases ranged from zero to three annually. The highest number of aggravated assaults (3) occurred in 2015 and 2020. The rate per 1,000 people was highest in 2015 at 2.82, given the population of 1,065. The city's contribution to the state's aggravated assault cases peaked at 0.17% in 2020. However, no aggravated assaults were reported in 2016-2019, 2021, and 2022, indicating recent improvement.
There appears to be a moderate correlation between population density and violent crime rates. Years with higher population density, such as 2014 (2,244 people per square mile) and 2016 (2,372 people per square mile), tended to have higher violent crime incidents. However, this correlation is not consistent throughout the dataset.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of the recent decreasing trend. Based on the cyclical nature of the crime data and the recent years showing lower crime rates, it's projected that violent crime incidents may remain low, potentially averaging 1-2 incidents per year. However, given the small population size, even minor fluctuations can significantly impact crime rates.
In summary, Muldraugh has experienced variable violent crime rates over the past decade, with aggravated assault being the most common offense. The city's contribution to state-wide crime statistics remains minimal across all categories. Recent years have shown a trend towards lower crime rates, particularly in 2021 and 2022, which could be a positive indicator for community safety. The relationship between population density and crime rates, while present, is not consistently strong, suggesting that other factors may play significant roles in the city's crime dynamics.
