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Property Crime Trends in Dawson Springs: A Decade of Fluctuations Amid Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Dawson Springs, Kentucky, a small city with a rich history, has experienced significant changes in its property crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, peaking at 77 incidents in 2015 and decreasing to 22 by 2022, representing a 71.4% reduction. During this same period, the population declined from 4,917 in 2010 to 3,803 in 2022, a 22.7% decrease.
Burglary trends in the city have shown notable variations. In 2010, there were 10 burglaries, which increased to 20 in 2014 and 2018, before dropping to 8 in 2022. The burglary rate per 1,000 residents rose from 2.03 in 2010 to 4.35 in 2014, then fell to 2.10 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.05% in 2010 to 0.16% in 2022, despite the overall decrease in incidents. This suggests that while burglaries have declined locally, they've done so at a slower rate compared to the state average.
Larceny theft exhibited a similar pattern of fluctuation. From 22 incidents in 2010, it peaked at 57 in 2015 before declining to 11 in 2022, a 50% decrease over the 12-year period. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 4.47 in 2010 to 13.01 in 2015, then dropped to 2.89 in 2022. The city's proportion of state larceny thefts remained relatively stable, ranging from 0.03% to 0.10%, indicating that local trends generally mirrored state-wide patterns.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed an overall increase, despite year-to-year fluctuations. From 4 incidents in 2010, it rose to 7 in 2020 before settling at 3 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.81 in 2010 to 1.58 in 2020, then decreased to 0.79 in 2022. Notably, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.09% in 2010 to 0.07% in 2022, suggesting a slightly higher concentration of these crimes relative to state trends.
Arson incidents were sporadic, with only four years (2012, 2013, 2019, and 2020) reporting a single case each. The rate per 1,000 residents during these years ranged from 0.22 to 0.23. The city's share of state arsons fluctuated significantly, from 0.22% in 2012 to 0.62% in 2019, indicating that even single incidents can have a substantial impact on the city's proportion of state totals due to its small size.
A strong correlation exists between property crime trends and population density. As the population density decreased from 1,279 per square mile in 2010 to 989 in 2022, total property crimes also showed a general decline. This suggests that lower population density may contribute to reduced property crime rates.
Median income showed a notable correlation with property crime trends. As median income increased from $33,710 in 2013 to $46,771 in 2022, property crimes generally decreased. This indicates that improved economic conditions may have a positive impact on reducing property crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, it's estimated that by 2029 (five years from now), Dawson Springs may see a further reduction in overall property crimes. Burglaries could potentially decrease to around 5-6 incidents annually, larceny thefts might stabilize at 8-10 cases per year, and motor vehicle thefts could remain low at 1-2 incidents annually. Arson is expected to remain rare, with possibly no incidents in most years.
In conclusion, Dawson Springs has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crimes from 2010 to 2022, despite some fluctuations. This trend, coupled with demographic changes such as decreasing population density and increasing median income, suggests a generally improving safety profile for the city. However, the increasing share of state burglaries and motor vehicle thefts indicates that while local crime rates are decreasing, they may not be falling as rapidly as state averages. As the city continues to evolve, maintaining focus on economic growth and community development could further contribute to sustaining and improving these positive trends in property crime reduction.
