Robbery rates in Morristown have shown a significant decline over the period. In 2010, there were 43 robberies (0.799 per 1,000 people), accounting for 0.56% of the state's total. By 2022, this number had decreased to 14 (0.249 per 1,000 people), representing 0.42% of the state's total. This marks a 67.44% decrease in robbery incidents over the 12-year period, outpacing the population growth and suggesting a substantial improvement in this area of public safety.

Aggravated assault, the most common form of violent crime in Morristown, has shown an overall increase. In 2010, there were 183 aggravated assaults (3.399 per 1,000 people), representing 0.87% of the state's total. By 2022, this number had increased to 194 (3.447 per 1,000 people), accounting for 0.84% of the state's total. The peak was in 2019 with 219 incidents (3.944 per 1,000 people). While the increase is modest at 6.01%, it is noteworthy that aggravated assaults have not decreased in line with other violent crimes.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between the city's changing demographics and violent crime trends. As the Hispanic population increased from 11% in 2013 to 14% in 2022, there was a slight overall decrease in violent crimes. However, this correlation should be interpreted cautiously, as other factors likely contribute to crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continuation of the overall declining trend in violent crimes. Robberies are expected to further decrease, potentially reaching single digits annually. Aggravated assaults may stabilize or show a slight decrease if current trends persist. Rape incidents are projected to remain relatively stable, while murder rates are expected to remain low, possibly with years of no incidents interspersed with occasional occurrences.

In summary, Morristown has shown resilience in face of population growth, with an overall decrease in violent crimes despite an increase in aggravated assaults. The significant reduction in robberies is particularly noteworthy. As the city continues to evolve demographically, maintaining focus on preventing aggravated assaults while building on the success in reducing other violent crimes will be crucial for Morristown's ongoing public safety efforts.