Robbery rates have fluctuated but show an overall decreasing trend when adjusted for population growth. In 2010, there were 22 robberies (0.43 per 1,000 people), which decreased to 12 in 2022 (0.17 per 1,000 people). This represents a 45.5% decrease in absolute numbers and a 60.5% decrease when adjusted for population. The city's contribution to state robbery statistics has remained relatively stable, ranging from 0.16% to 0.55% over the years.

Aggravated assault incidents have shown an increase in absolute numbers but a slight decrease when adjusted for population growth. In 2010, there were 55 aggravated assaults (1.08 per 1,000 people), which increased to 59 in 2022 (0.86 per 1,000 people). This represents a 7.3% increase in absolute numbers but a 20.4% decrease when adjusted for population. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault statistics has fluctuated between 0.25% and 0.54% over the years.

Examining correlations between violent crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The increase in rape incidents appears to correlate with the growing population density, which rose from 1,929 people per square mile in 2010 to 2,597 in 2022. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between the slight increase in violent crimes and changes in racial demographics, with the white population percentage decreasing from 80% in 2013 to 77% in 2022, while other racial groups saw small increases.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of current trends. Rape incidents may continue to increase if preventive measures are not implemented. Robbery rates are likely to remain stable or slightly decrease. Aggravated assaults may see a slight increase in absolute numbers but potentially decrease when adjusted for expected population growth. The murder rate is expected to remain low, with occasional incidents not forming a significant trend.

In summary, Mooresville has experienced a complex evolution of violent crime trends against the backdrop of significant population growth. While some crime categories like robbery have shown improvement relative to population size, the rising trend in rape incidents is a concern that requires attention. The city's contribution to state-wide crime statistics remains relatively small but has increased in certain categories, particularly rape. These trends underscore the need for targeted crime prevention strategies and community engagement initiatives to maintain and improve public safety as the city continues to grow.