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Violent Crime Trends in Tabor City: A Decade of Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Tabor City, a small town in North Carolina, has experienced a notable reduction in violent crime over the past decade, despite population growth. From 2010 to 2022, total violent crime incidents decreased by 65.7%, from 35 to 12, while the population increased by 5%, from 5,262 to 5,523 residents. This trend presents an interesting case study in small-town crime dynamics.
Murder rates in Tabor City have shown significant variability. In 2010, there was 1 murder, which increased to 2 in 2011, followed by years with no murders reported. The rate peaked in 2015 with 5 murders, representing 1.67% of the state's total murders that year - a significant proportion for a small town. By 2022, the number had decreased to 1 murder, accounting for 0.17% of the state's total. The murder rate per 1,000 people fluctuated from 0.19 in 2010 to a high of 0.76 in 2015, before decreasing to 0.18 in 2022, suggesting an overall improvement in murder rates relative to the population over time.
Rape incidents in Tabor City have been sporadically reported, with many years showing no data available. In 2022, 5 rapes were reported, accounting for 0.26% of the state's total. This represents a rate of 0.91 per 1,000 people, a significant increase from previous years where data was available. The lack of consistent data makes it challenging to establish a clear long-term trend, but the recent increase warrants attention.
Robbery trends show a general decline over the years. From 4 incidents in 2010 (0.05% of state total), the number peaked at 6 in 2011 (0.08% of state total) before gradually decreasing to 1 in 2022 (0.02% of state total). The robbery rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.76 in 2010 to 0.18 in 2022, indicating a significant improvement in public safety regarding this crime category.
Aggravated assault, which forms the bulk of violent crimes in the city, has shown a notable decrease. From 30 incidents in 2010 (0.22% of state total), the number fluctuated over the years, reaching a low of 5 in 2022 (0.02% of state total). The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 5.70 in 2010 to 0.91 in 2022, representing a substantial improvement in this category of violent crime.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 1,564 per square mile in 2010 to 1,642 in 2022, the overall violent crime rate decreased. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between racial demographics and crime rates. As the white population percentage decreased from 58% in 2015 to 50% in 2022, and the Black population percentage increased slightly from 35% to 38% in the same period, violent crime rates generally declined.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's forecasted that by 2029, Tabor City may see a further reduction in violent crimes. The total number of violent crimes could potentially decrease to around 8-10 incidents per year, with murder rates potentially stabilizing at 0-1 per year, rapes potentially decreasing to 2-3 per year, robberies remaining low at 0-1 per year, and aggravated assaults potentially reducing to 3-4 per year.
In conclusion, Tabor City has shown a generally positive trend in reducing violent crime rates across most categories, particularly in relation to its population growth. The most significant improvements have been seen in aggravated assaults and robberies. However, the recent spike in rape incidents and the fluctuating murder rates suggest areas that may require continued focus for law enforcement and community initiatives. These trends, coupled with demographic shifts, paint a picture of a changing urban landscape with improving safety metrics, positioning Tabor City for potentially safer prospects in the coming years.
