Robbery trends have generally declined over the observed period. From a high of 7 cases in 2011 (0.09% of state robberies, 0.44 per 1,000 residents), the number decreased to 2 cases in 2022 (0.06% of state robberies, 0.11 per 1,000 residents). This indicates a significant reduction both in absolute numbers and in relation to the state's total.

Aggravated assault has shown the most dramatic fluctuations among violent crimes in the city. It peaked dramatically in 2015 with 206 cases (1.12% of state cases, 12.53 per 1,000 residents), a stark contrast to 41 cases in 2010 (0.19% of state cases, 2.61 per 1,000 residents). By 2022, there were 56 aggravated assaults (0.24% of state cases, 3.22 per 1,000 residents), indicating a substantial decrease from the 2015 peak but still higher than the 2010 levels.

A notable correlation exists between the city's demographic changes and violent crime trends. As the Hispanic population grew from 5% in 2013 to 11% in 2022, there was a general downward trend in violent crimes, particularly after the 2015 peak. Additionally, the slight decrease in the Black population from 12% in 2015 to 8% in 2022 coincided with the overall reduction in violent crime rates. However, it's important to note that correlation does not imply causation, and these demographic shifts alone do not explain the crime trends.

Applying predictive models based on recent trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), Lewisburg may see a continued gradual decrease in overall violent crime rates, potentially reaching around 50-60 total incidents annually. However, this projection assumes current trends continue and no significant socioeconomic changes occur.

In summary, Lewisburg has experienced a general downward trend in violent crime since 2015, despite some year-to-year fluctuations. The most significant reductions have been in aggravated assaults and robberies, while murder rates have remained low but variable. These trends, occurring alongside modest population growth and demographic shifts, suggest an overall improvement in public safety. However, continued monitoring and community-based crime prevention efforts will be crucial to maintain and further improve these positive trends in Lewisburg.