Robbery trends have been more volatile. The number of robberies decreased from 12 in 2010 to 9 in 2022, a 25% reduction. However, when considering population growth, the rate per 1,000 people decreased more significantly, from 0.23 to 0.15. Interestingly, despite the overall decrease, the city's percentage of state robberies increased from 0.82% in 2010 to 1.24% in 2022, indicating that robbery rates may have declined more rapidly in other parts of the state.

Aggravated assault has seen the most substantial increase among violent crimes. Incidents rose from 44 in 2010 to 99 in 2022, a 125% increase. The rate per 1,000 people also increased from 0.86 to 1.61. The city's contribution to state-level aggravated assaults grew from 0.71% to 1.31% during this period. This trend suggests that aggravated assault has become a more significant challenge for law enforcement and community safety initiatives.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong relationship between the increase in violent crime and population density. As the population density rose from 1,504 people per square mile in 2010 to 1,805 in 2022, violent crime incidents increased correspondingly. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between changes in racial demographics and crime rates. The percentage of white residents decreased from 80% in 2013 to 76% in 2022, while the percentage of Black residents increased from 4% to 7%, and Hispanic residents from 7% to 9% during the same period. This demographic shift coincided with the overall increase in violent crime rates.

Applying predictive models based on current trends, it is forecast that by 2029, Lenexa may see its violent crime incidents increase to approximately 180-200 per year if current trends continue without intervention. This projection assumes a continuation of population growth and demographic shifts at similar rates to those observed in recent years.

In summary, Lenexa has experienced a significant increase in violent crime over the past decade, particularly in aggravated assaults and rapes, while seeing fluctuations in murders and a slight decrease in robberies. These changes have occurred against a backdrop of population growth and shifting demographics. The city's contribution to state-level crime statistics has generally increased across most categories, suggesting that Lenexa is facing growing challenges in maintaining public safety relative to other areas in Kansas. As the community continues to evolve, addressing these crime trends will likely be a key focus for local law enforcement and policymakers in the coming years.