Robbery trends have remained relatively stable and low. The city reported 1 case in 2011 and 2012 (0.01% of state total each year), no cases in 2013 and 2014, 2 cases annually from 2015 to 2020 (ranging from 0.01% to 0.02% of state total), and no cases in 2022. The robbery rate per 1,000 people never exceeded 0.076. This low and stable robbery rate contributes to the overall perception of safety in the community.

Aggravated assault has shown some fluctuation but remains the most common violent crime in the city. The number of cases ranged from a high of 11 in 2011 (0.05% of state total) to a low of 0 in 2017. In 2022, there were 8 cases (0.06% of state total). The rate per 1,000 people varied from 0 to 0.417, with the highest rate in 2011. Despite these fluctuations, the overall trend suggests a relatively low level of aggravated assaults compared to larger urban areas.

When examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 1,193 per square mile in 2011 to 1,173 in 2022, there was a general trend of decreasing violent crime, though with some fluctuations. Additionally, there seems to be a slight correlation between the increasing Hispanic population (from 6% in 2013 to 8% in 2022) and the slight uptick in violent crimes in recent years, though this correlation should be interpreted cautiously.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a slight increase in overall violent crimes. Based on the recent uptick and demographic shifts, the model suggests the city may experience between 12-15 violent crimes annually by 2029. However, this prediction assumes current trends continue without significant interventions or changes in socio-economic factors.

In summary, Homer Glen has maintained a relatively low and stable violent crime rate over the past decade, with some fluctuations in specific categories. The consistently low murder rate, coupled with moderate levels of other violent crimes, suggests a generally safe community. However, the recent slight increases in rape and aggravated assault cases, along with demographic changes, indicate a need for continued focus on crime prevention strategies. As the city moves forward, maintaining community engagement and proactive law enforcement approaches will be crucial in preserving its overall safety and quality of life.