Rape incidents in the city have shown stability, with 2 reported cases in each of the years 2012, 2018, and 2019. However, when considering the population changes, the rate per 1,000 people slightly increased from 0.43 in 2012 to 0.43 in 2019, due to the population decrease. The percentage of state rape crimes attributed to Casey decreased from 0.11% in 2012 to 0.04% in 2019, suggesting an improvement relative to state-wide trends.

Robbery rates in Casey have remained at zero for all reported years (2012, 2018, and 2019). This consistency in the absence of robberies is a positive indicator for public safety, especially considering the city's small size. The robbery rate per 1,000 people and the percentage of state robbery crimes have both remained at 0%.

Aggravated assault cases saw the most significant change, dropping from 29 in 2012 to 6 in both 2018 and 2019. This represents a 79.3% decrease. The rate per 1,000 people fell from 6.22 in 2012 to 1.30 in 2019. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault crimes also decreased from 0.12% in 2012 to 0.02% in 2019, indicating a substantial improvement in this category of violent crime.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between the decrease in violent crimes and the slight increase in racial diversity. The percentage of white residents decreased from 98% in 2013 to 95% in 2022, while violent crimes decreased significantly. However, it's important to note that this correlation doesn't imply causation, and other factors likely contribute to the crime reduction.

Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that the violent crime rate in Casey will continue its downward trend over the next five years (until 2029). The total number of violent crimes could potentially decrease to around 5-6 incidents annually, assuming current socio-economic conditions and law enforcement strategies remain consistent.

In summary, Casey has demonstrated a remarkable improvement in its violent crime statistics over the past decade. The significant reduction in aggravated assaults, coupled with consistently low rates of other violent crimes, paints a picture of a small city that has made substantial strides in enhancing public safety. This positive trend, if maintained, could contribute to improved quality of life and potentially attract new residents, helping to reverse the slight population decline observed in recent years.