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Violent Crime Trends in Holden Beach, NC: A Coastal Town's Fluctuating Safety Record
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Holden Beach, a small coastal community in North Carolina, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends. With a population of 2,865 in 2022, this beach town has experienced fluctuations in both its population and crime rates over the years. From 2010 to 2021, the total number of violent crimes remained relatively stable, ranging from 0 to 4 incidents annually, while the population decreased by 13.2% from 3,262 to 2,830 during the same period.
The murder rate in Holden Beach has remained consistently at zero throughout the recorded period from 2010 to 2021. This absence of murders, despite population changes, indicates a consistently safe environment in terms of homicides. The murder rate per 1,000 people has consequently remained at 0, and the town has not contributed to the state's murder statistics during this time.
Rape incidents in the city have been sporadic and infrequent. In 2011, there were 2 reported cases of rape, representing 0.17% of the state's total. This translates to a rate of approximately 0.71 per 1,000 people based on that year's population of 2,803. However, in all other years with available data (2010, 2012, 2014, and 2021), no rape cases were reported. This suggests that while not entirely absent, sexual violence is not a persistent problem in the community.
Robbery trends in Holden Beach have been minimal. From 2010 to 2014, there were no reported robberies. However, in 2021, one robbery was reported, accounting for 0.02% of the state's total. This single incident translates to a rate of about 0.35 per 1,000 people, based on the 2021 population of 2,830. While this represents an increase from previous years, it's important to note that a single incident in a small population can significantly impact rates and percentages.
Aggravated assault has been the most consistently reported violent crime in the city. In 2010, there were 3 cases (0.02% of state total), decreasing to 1 case in 2011 (0.01% of state total), then increasing to 4 cases in 2012 (0.03% of state total). After a period of no reported cases in 2014, 2021 saw 2 aggravated assaults (0.01% of state total). The rate per 1,000 people fluctuated from approximately 0.92 in 2010 to 0.71 in 2021, showing a slight overall decrease despite yearly variations.
When examining correlations, there appears to be a weak inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 1,075 per square mile in 2010 to 932 in 2021, there was a slight overall increase in violent crime incidents. However, this correlation is not strong enough to suggest causation.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's challenging to forecast with high accuracy due to the low number of incidents and significant year-to-year variations. However, if current trends continue, we might expect to see between 0 to 5 violent crime incidents annually in Holden Beach by 2029, with aggravated assault likely remaining the most common type of violent crime.
In summary, Holden Beach has maintained relatively low levels of violent crime over the past decade, with aggravated assault being the most prevalent issue. The absence of murders and the infrequent occurrence of rapes and robberies suggest a generally safe environment. However, the sporadic nature of incidents in such a small population means that even a single crime can significantly impact statistical trends. As the community continues to evolve, maintaining vigilance and community-based crime prevention strategies will be crucial in preserving the town's overall safety record.
