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Violent Crime Trends in Hokes Bluff: A Decade of Stability in an Alabama City
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Hokes Bluff, located in Alabama, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in its total violent crime incidents, ranging from a low of 2 in 2016 and 2022 to a high of 6 in 2015 and 2020. During this same period, the population grew from 5,030 in 2010 to 5,360 in 2022, an increase of approximately 6.6%.
Analyzing murder trends, the city reported only one incident in 2017, accounting for 0.37% of the state's murders that year. This translates to a rate of 0.21 murders per 1,000 residents in 2017. In all other years from 2010 to 2022, no murders were reported, indicating an exceptionally low murder rate for the city overall.
Rape incidents in the city were sporadic. Two cases were reported in 2015, representing 0.16% of the state's total, and one case in 2020, accounting for 2.27% of the state's rapes. The rate per 1,000 residents was 0.39 in 2015 and 0.20 in 2020. The significant increase in the percentage of state crime from 2015 to 2020 suggests a possible anomaly or change in reporting practices, given the lower absolute number but higher state percentage.
Robbery incidents were infrequent, with only three reported cases over the 12-year period: one each in 2010, 2012, and 2016. These incidents represented 0.03%, 0.02%, and 0.03% of the state's robberies in their respective years. The robbery rate per 1,000 residents was 0.20 in 2010, 0.18 in 2012, and 0.21 in 2016, showing a relatively stable trend despite population changes.
Aggravated assault was the most common violent crime in the city. The number of incidents ranged from 1 in 2016 to 5 in 2020 and 2021. The rate per 1,000 residents varied from 0.21 in 2016 to 0.98 in 2020. The percentage of state aggravated assaults fluctuated, with a notable spike to 1.45% in 2020, significantly higher than other years which typically ranged from 0.01% to 0.06%.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a weak positive relationship between population density and violent crime rates. For instance, in 2020, when the population density increased to 427 people per square mile from 396 in 2017, violent crimes rose to 6 from 4. However, this correlation is not consistent across all years, suggesting other factors may play a more significant role in crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's challenging to forecast with high confidence due to the low numbers and high variability. However, if current trends continue, we might expect the total number of violent crimes in Hokes Bluff to remain low, likely averaging between 3 to 5 incidents annually over the next five years (up to 2029). This prediction assumes no significant changes in socioeconomic factors or law enforcement strategies.
In summary, Hokes Bluff has maintained relatively low violent crime rates from 2010 to 2022, with aggravated assault being the most prevalent offense. The sporadic nature of other violent crimes and the low overall numbers make it difficult to identify clear trends or make precise predictions. The city's violent crime rates appear to be generally lower than what might be expected for its population size, suggesting effective local law enforcement or strong community factors contributing to public safety.
